Tonight’s NL Central matchup features the Cincinnati Reds (69-77) facing the Milwaukee Brewers (91-56) at 7:40 p.m. ET.

The Reds are sitting at the bottom of the NL Central and technically in the Wild Card hunt, but are a distant nine games back of the San Diego Padres for the third Wild Card playoff spot.

Meanwhile, the Brewers sport the best record in baseball and are on a three-game winning streak going into this weekend series before heading out on an East Coast road trip.

Before tonight’s first pitch, let’s run down the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.

MLB Betting Odds and Trends

No surprise to see the Brewers as big -338 favourites on the MLB odds board tonight. The disparity between betting odds for both teams should really tell you the story here between a great team in Milwaukee and one that’s not so great in Cincinnati. The Brewers are third in runs scored, the Reds are 23rd.

Milwaukee is third in offensive WAR, Cincinnati is 28th. The Brewers have one of the best collective pitching staffs in baseball and the Reds are bottom-three in ERA. The over run total prop is very much live, as Brewers -1.5.

Cincinnati Reds

After taking two out of three games last weekend from the Brewers, they meet back up this time at American Family Field in Milwaukee.

The Reds are third in home runs, five away from 200, but that prodigious power hasn’t translated into the win column the way they hoped. Rookie of the Year front-runner Sal Stewart (.815 OPS, 31 HR, 107 RBI, 15 SB) has been everything the Reds have hoped for and more. Elly De La Cruz sports a team-leading 5.1 WAR and .873 WAR on 26 home runs and 70 RBI.

Cincinnati is also bottom-five in team ERA, so that explains a lot, despite Chase Burns having a dream season with a 15-3 record and a 2.73 ERA. Clearly, the Reds have found their ace of the future here with Hunter Greene unfortunately unable to stay on the field with his second Tommy John surgery in his career last month.

Milwaukee Brewers

After a three-game sweep of the second-place Chicago Cubs, the Brew Crew are riding high.

The Brewers may be last in MLB in home runs entering play tonight, but they are third in MLB in runs, so they’re playing small ball and working the bases with the fifth-most stolen bases. They’ve received excellent contributions from William Contreras (.293, 15 HR, 77 RBI), Brice Turang (17 HR, 86 RBI, 18 SB. team-leading 6.1 WAR), Jake Bauers (team-leading 24 HR and .884 OPS) and Jackson Chourio (.837 OPS, 23 HR, 65 RBI, 17 SB).

Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski is pretty good, folks. He leads baseball in ERA (1.95), strikeouts (236) and WHIP (0.80), and has been nearly automatic for the Brew Crew. Add on Kyle Harrison and his 10-4 record with a solid 3.66 ERA and tonight’s starter Shane Drohan into the rotation, and the Brewers have the horses to make a deep October push for an NL Pennant.

Who Will Win Reds vs. Brewers?

The home Brewers will trot out lefty Shane Drohan for tonight’s game, but after a great start to the season, he’s backslid a bit with an ERA in the mid-4.00’s over July and August. He’ll look to bounce back from his last start against these same Reds, where he gave up six earned runs in four innings.

For the Reds, it’s another lefty, Andrew Abbott who takes the hill. Abbott hasn’t had much in the way of consistency this season, but his last start against the Brewers was solid with one earned run allowed in four innings for the no-decision.

Today’s game should be a great one, but we are going with the team that has the best home record in Major League Baseball and is riding a huge high after their series with the Cubs. Let’s take the Brewers for the first game of this three-game set tonight.

REDS

Away

2

BREWERS

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