2026 U.S. Open Men’s Final Betting Odds, Picks: Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton

An American man is one win away from capturing a Grand Slam singles title for the first time since Andy Roddick at the 2003 U.S. Open. Yes, that’s exactly 23 years ago.

Taylor Fritz also came this close in 2024, but he faced Jannik Sinner in the final and, as expected, was not competitive.

Two years later, it is Ben Shelton who is on the doorstep of history and this time around there is no Sinner standing in his way, or even Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic.

Instead, it is German Alexander Zverev who faces Shelton on Sunday afternoon in New York and, even though Zverev may not be one of the aforementioned superstars, he is still the favourite to win his second slam title and first at the U.S. Open.

Let’s take a look at three of the best bets to make for the men’s singles championship match. 

Make sure to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of U.S. Open match odds and U.S. Open futures.

Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton best bet: Shelton ML (+126)

Shelton has been the more impressive of the two finalists throughout this hard-court summer swing. The world No. 9 (and soon-to-be world No. 4) warmed up for the U.S. Open by winning the Montreal Masters 1000 title.

Zverev, by contrast, won a total of two matches combined in Montreal and Cincinnati.

Shelton has since run a gauntlet of a U.S. Open draw featuring Tallon Griekspoor, former Wimbledon semifinalists Hubert Hurkacz and Denis Shapovalov, two-time major finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alcaraz – the defending U.S. Open champion and seven-time slam winner – and Frances Tiafoe, who recently finished runner-up in Cincinnati.

Zverev, on the other hand, was pushed to five sets by two opponents ranked outside the top 50 in his first two rounds and has not defeated anyone ranked better than No. 22 this fortnight.

That’s not to say that the German isn’t playing well, but his level this fortnight has not reached that of Shelton.

The 23-year-old will also have a significant home-court advantage, which is a factor that should not be underestimated in a raucous Arthur Ashe Stadium atmosphere.

The game spread would be enticing at +2.5, but at a +1.5 margin there is better value on simply backing Shelton on the money line.

Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton prediction: Shelton over 20.5 games won (-130)

It almost certainly won’t be easy for Shelton, however. This has all the makings of a relatively long match between two men who are playing the best tennis of their respective careers.

Zverev is playing in a third consecutive slam final, having previously lifted the trophy at the French Open before finishing as runner-up to Sinner at Wimbledon.

The 29-year-old has reached at least the semis of all four majors this season and this is not Zverev’s first rodeo in the U.S. Open final, either.

Six years ago he battled Dominic Thiem on championship Sunday in a match that went all the way to a fifth-set tiebreaker before the Austrian finally came out on top.

It should also be noted that Zverev has won his last four matches in straight sets, so he has raised his level since his five-set scares in the first two rounds against Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys.

Shelton has a great chance to win, but he will probably have to put in a massive effort to do it, as he did during a 6-7 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6 quarterfinal upset of Alcaraz that went until 3:33am, the latest finish in tournament history.