Falcons vs. Steelers NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks and Prediction: Rodgers, McCarthy Begin One Last Run
Kevin Stefanski’s Falcons era begins on the road against a team he knows intimately from his years in Cleveland. Atlanta travels to Pittsburgh for the season opener with plenty of change on both sides: Stefanski replaces Raheem Morris in Atlanta, while Mike McCarthy takes over for Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh, ending the Tomlin era after two decades.
Both quarterback rooms carry uncertainty into Week 1. The Falcons named Tua Tagovailoa their starter after Michael Penix Jr. told the team he wasn’t fully ready to play, a decision one report characterized as reluctant. Pittsburgh counters with 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, back for a season he’s called his last, reunited with McCarthy in hopes of a career resurgence.
Stakes-wise, this is as much about setting a tone as banking a win. For Atlanta, it’s the first data point on whether Stefanski’s run-heavy scheme with Bijan Robinson can click quickly, and whether the defence can avoid the second-half collapses that sank last year’s 8-9 finish. For Pittsburgh, it’s the first real look at a shuffled offensive line protecting a quarterback who turns 43 during the season. McCarthy’s staff also gets its first opportunity to show what an offense with Michael Pittman Jr. and DK Metcalf together looks like in live action.
Falcons vs. Steelers Kickoff, Weather, TV, Streaming Info
Here’s everything you need to know for Sunday’s Week 1 game between Atlanta and Pittsburgh:
- Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
- Weather: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers, roughly 79-82°F at kickoff, light wind around 5-7 mph out of the southwest. Precipitation chances have hovered in the 15-30% range in recent forecasts, but no major weather impact is expected.
- TV: FOX (national/regional broadcast)
- Streaming: Available via the FOX Sports app, NFL+, and any live-TV streaming service that carries FOX (Fubo, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, etc.)
NFL Betting Odds, Point Spread, Trends
The Steelers are 3.5-point favourites, carrying a -185 money line price. Meanwhile, the Falcons are +155 underdogs, and the Over/Under sits at 42.5. Pittsburgh is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these squads, and the Under has cashed in four of those games. Additionally, the Under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven Week 1 games, and the Falcons have covered five consecutive games as a road underdog.
History heavily favors the home team. Pittsburgh has won the last five meetings in this series, and Atlanta has never won in Pittsburgh, going 0-16-1 there historically. The Steelers also went 5-3 straight up at home with Rodgers under centre last season, with all three home losses coming against playoff-caliber teams (Seattle, Green Bay, and Buffalo).
NFL Player Odds and Props
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta’s success starts and ends with the productivity of their three-headed attack featuring RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts. Bijan had nearly 3,000 all-purpose yards last season, and oddsmakers have his Over/Under for total rushing and receiving yards at 115.5 for Sunday’s contest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Reuniting Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy is the major story surrounding Pittsburgh, but watch out for free agent signing WR Michael Pittman on Sunday. The former Colts wideout averaged 89 receptions per season over his last five years in Indy, and his Over/Under for total receptions is just 4.5.
Atlanta Falcons
This is an Atlanta team that should feature a HEAVY dose of Bijan Robinson rushing the football. Not only does new head coach Kyle Stefanski love to run the ball, but starting QB Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the passing game. Additionally, the Falcons’ offensive line will be a major strength for them this season, so I don’t expect too much from Tua in this game.
The bigger issue for the Falcons is the defensive line and linebacker core. Edge rusher James Pearce will already miss eight games due to suspension, and if any starters go down with an injury, there aren’t many suitable replacements. It may not be a major issue in Week 1, but Atlanta’s defensive depth is a major concern this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
QB Aaron Rodgers is back under center for Pittsburgh one final time (at least he’s saying that), but it will be his former Packers head coach, Mike McCarthy, calling the shots. As exciting as that is, I have real concerns about this offence, and the two biggest issues are Pittsburgh’s offensive line and lack of weapons for Rodgers.
Signing WR Michael Pittman was a good start, but outside of Pittman and D.K. Metcalf, the Steelers don’t have positional players that will scare opposing defences. On the offensive line, Dylan Cook, a converted practice-squad player who impressed down the stretch last season, is currently the favorite to start at tackle, and left guard Isaac Seumalo left in free agency. Luckily for Pittsburgh, they’re going up against a weak Atlanta front seven in Week 1.
ATL
PIT