Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Prediction: 2026 US Open Women’s Final Odds and Best Bets
Sabalenka is chasing a third consecutive U.S. Open title, while Rybakina enters having already guaranteed that she will replace Sabalenka as world No 1, ending the Belarusian’s 99-week run atop the rankings.
Rybakina also beat Sabalenka in this year’s Australian Open final, adding another layer to a rivalry that has become one of the best in women’s tennis.
Sabalenka leads the career series 10-7 and has won the two most recent meetings, but I still prefer the value in Rybakina as a slight underdog.
Her path to the final has revealed a level of resilience that matters against Sabalenka. Rybakina has dropped the opening set in consecutive matches and still found a way through, including a three-set comeback against Coco Gauff after the American played an exceptional first set.
Rybakina began striking the ball much cleaner in the second and third sets and refused to let the match get away from her.
That composure could be crucial. Sabalenka can become visibly frustrated when momentum turns against her, while Rybakina tends to stay remarkably even.
Rybakina also owns a 4-2 advantage in championship matches between them.
Sabalenka and Rybakina both hold serve at an 81.5 per cent rate this season, while each converts 44.8 per cent of break-point opportunities. Rybakina has been the more prolific ace producer, piling up 357 in 2026 compared to Sabalenka’s 236.
Sabalenka owns the stronger overall return numbers, winning 44.6 per cent of return points and 37.1 per cent of return games, so neither player has a clear statistical edge large enough to expect a quick final.
The 2026 Australian Open final went three sets, and Sabalenka needed three sets to beat Rybakina at Indian Wells.
Sabalenka also enters after arguably her best performance of the season against Jessica Pegula, while Rybakina has repeatedly survived difficult situations.
Two competitive sets could put this number in danger, and a third will make the Over very live.
U.S. Open Women’s Singles Final Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina best bet: Rybakina to win 2-1 (+380)
Sabalenka has been exceptional in New York and has enormous motivation: she can complete a three-peat, avenge the Australian Open final and beat the woman replacing her at No. 1.
Rybakina has now proven in consecutive rounds that losing the first set does not shake her, after nearly missing this tournament by going a week without practising beforehand. Now she is one victory from the title.
I’ll back her to complete the run in an instant classic.