Morehead State (14) vs. Illinois (3) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
This East Region matchup features Illinois as a hefty 11.5-point favourite to win on the college basketball odds, with the total set at 147.5.
Morehead State vs. Illinois NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
The winner of this game will face either No. 6 BYU or No. 11 Duquesne in the second round for a chance to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16.
This is Morehead State’s ninth NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2021. They are 6-9 all-time in the Big Dance, going as far as the Sweet 16 in 1956 and 1961. Their six tournament wins are the most of any current Ohio Valley Conference member, but they lost in the first round against West Virginia in their last NCAA Tournament appearance three years ago. The Eagles are a massive +100,000 ticket to win the tournament, +20,000 to reach the Final Four, +8000 to reach the Elite Eight and +1800 to reach the Sweet 16.
Illinois is a perennial NCAA Tournament contender, making 33 previous tournament appearances. They have a winning 41-32 record all-time in the Dance, with their best result being a runner-up finish against North Carolina in 2005. The Fighting Illini have lost in the second round in each of their last four tournament appearances. Illinois is +3000 to win the tournament, +650 to reach the Final Four, +250 to reach the Elite Eight and -145 to reach the Sweet 16.
No. 3 seeds went undefeated in last year’s tournament and 14-seeds are just 2-26 over the last six years. Abilene Christian was the last 14-seed to advance as they knocked out the No. 3 Texas Longhorns in 2021.
Morehead State Eagles (14)
Morehead State finished first in the Ohio Valley Conference with a 14-4 conference record and 26-8 record overall. The Eagles defeated Little Rock on March 9 to claim their sixth Ohio Valley Tournament title. Offensively, this team sits outside of the top-100 nationally in points per game (75.5), although they have four players averaging double digit points. Riley Minix has been particularly effective, averaging 20.8 ppg and 9.8 rebounds while shooting 54.6 per cent from the field and 34.0 per cent from three. Defensively, the team is ranked ninth in the nation in opponent three-point percentage at 29.6 per cent.
Illinois Fighting Illini (3)
Illinois put up a 26-8 overall record this season, finishing second in the Big Ten with a 14-6 conference record. They won the Big Ten Tournament on March 16, taking out Nebraska 98-87. The Fighting Illini have four double digit scorers on the roster, but no one has been hotter than Terrence Shannon Jr., who averages a team-high 23.0 ppg and scored at least 28 points in all three Big Ten Tournament games. The team boasts a top-10 offence in the nation, averaging 84.4 ppg. The major concern is Illinois’ abysmal defence, which ranks bottom-10 in the nation by allowing 73.8 ppg. The team can’t outscore their problems forever.
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