Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Prediction, NBA Odds
The Nuggets forced this winner-take-all situation after a 119-107 victory in Game 6, but now this series shifts back to Oklahoma City where the Thunder have been almost unbeatable. OKC is 40-8 on home court this season, and their lone home playoff loss came when they blew a double-digit lead midway through the fourth quarter.
A common storyline this series has been the variances in experience among these rosters. Denver’s been there done that, winning an NBA title in 2023. OKC’s the new team on the block after winning 68 games in the regular season. All that work earned the Thunder the crucial home court advantage on Sunday, but this is no foreign situation to the Nuggets and then the highest stakes this Thunder roster likely has ever gone through.
Tip-off for Game 7 at Paycom Center goes at 3:30 p.m. EDT with the Thunder -325 on the moneyline and an 8.5-point favourite. The total is at 213.5 on the NBA odds.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Playoff Betting Odds
With an upset win in Game 6, Denver is also now 4-0 against the spread in this series’ last four games. The +5.5 point spread in Game 6 was the best odds given to them this series, but here we are tied 3-3 as Denver’s won outright as an underdog three times. The Thunder are now 3-6 ATS in the post-season and 2-7 ATS in their last nine times hosting the Nuggets. The over-under is an even 3-3 this series too, but eight of Denver’s last 12 road games have finished over.
Denver has a 5-4 record all-time in Game 7s, most recently winning one last series at home against the L.A. Clippers. The Thunder are 2-2 in Game 7s but have dropped two straight and have not won a Game 7 since 2014.
Oddsmakers are still listing OKC as the favourite to win it all at +110 odds. Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the favourite to win NBA Finals MVP at +120 odds.
Denver Nuggets
Denver desperately needed more offence outside of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, and got exactly that in the Game 6 win. In the starting five, third-year guard Christian Braun stepped with 23 points and 11 rebounds, his second double-double of the series a playoff career-high in points. Denver’s bench totalled 27 points in Game 6, led by 15 points from Julian Strawther — which sparked Denver’s third quarter run. Jokic still had a 29-point, 14-rebound day and Murray added 25 points in the win.
Murray entered Game 6 as questionable due to illness but battled through and will be fine for Game 7. The big question mark is starting forward Aaron Gordon, who suffered a left hamstring strain toward the end of Game 6. Gordon’s been a clutch scorer all playoffs for Denver so this would be a huge loss If he can’t go.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday’s Game 7 is going to take more than the scoring of just Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. Game 6 was case in point, as this duo combined for 52 points and were the only two Thunder players above 10 points. Jalen Williams in particular had a rough showing, shooting three for 16 from the field. Williams is averaging just 16.5 points per game this series which is nearly seven points lower than the first round and almost five points lower than his regular season average.
OKC has been way stronger defending at home and that needs to keep up on Sunday. When at home, Thunder opponents have averaged just over 102 points per game in the playoffs and if OKC holds Denver in the range during Game 7 it should be more of a walk-in-the-park for the Thunder; although dealing with Jokic and the Nuggets has shown to be anything but.
DEN
OKC