Lions vs. Bears Point Spread: NFL Week 16 Odds, Prediction
Detroit’s 11-game win streak was finally snapped in a 48-42 shootout against Buffalo last week. The loss proved costly as Minnesota pulled into a tie with the Lions for the lead in the NFC North. That means there is a very good chance the regular season finale between the Lions and Vikings will decide the division and possibly the conference.
One team who won’t complete for the NFC North crown is Chicago. The woeful Bears fell to 4-10 with a 30-12 loss in Minnesota in Week 15, bringing their losing streak to eight games.
Detroit is a sizeable 6.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 48.0.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
These teams just met on American Thanksgiving, with the Lions squeaking out a 23-20 victory thanks to a bonehead decision by Bears head coach Matt Eberflus to not use Chicago’s final timeout at the end of the game. The gaffe cost Eberflus his job the next day as he became the first head coach in franchise history to be fired mid-season.
Despite playing a close game a few weeks ago, this stacks up heavily in Detroit’s favour. Not only are the Lions a perfect 6-0 on the road this season, they can’t afford to take their foot off the gas pedal if they want to win the division and take top seed in the NFC.
As bad as the Bears have been this season, they actually sport a winning 4-3 home record. That’s promising on paper, but keep in mind one of those wins was in London and Chicago hasn’t actually won at Solider Field since Week 5 against the equally bad Carolina Panthers.
When it comes to covering the spread, both teams have a positive outlook. Detroit is 9-5 against the spread overall and they’ve covered in five of six road dates. By comparison, the Bears are an even 6-6-2 ATS, while going 5-1-1 ATS at home. The tiebreak goes to Chicago, who has covered in three straight games against the Lions.
I have to hit you with one last stat to pack away if you think the Thanksgiving Day game is an indication that the Bears have a shot at a huge upset. Chicago is just 2-14 straight up in their last 16 games against NFC North teams over the last three seasons. That’s a putrid number and the worst mark for any team against their own division in that time.
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff can fall back on the old hockey saying “I had my man” last week because the loss was in no way his fault. Goff matched a career-high with five TD passes while throwing for a season-high 494 yards and no interceptions against the Bills. All five TDs were thrown to different receivers, led by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who finished with 193 receiving yards and a score. Sam LaPorta had 111 receiving yards and Jahmyr Gibbs added 31 rushing yards and a TD on the ground.
Gibbs will be the main run option going forward amid the fear David Montgomery’s season is over because of a knee injury. While Montgomery is reportedly suffering a third opinion from doctors, he certainly won’t play this week. It’s the defence, however, that has suffered the most injuries. Already with 13 defenders on injured reserve entering last week’s game, the Lions lost defensive tackle Alim McNeil (torn ACL) as well as cornerbacks Khalil Dorsey (ankle) and Carlton Davis III (fractured jaw) to season-ending injuries.
Chicago Bears
The jury is still out on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and his ability to be a star in the NFL. The former first overall draft pick is riding an NFL rookie record of 286 straight passes thrown without an interception over eight consecutive games, but the Bears have lost all eight of those games. Williams ranks third in rookie passing yards (2,937) and tied for second in rookie passing TDs (17), but his 61.9 completion percentage trails fellow rookies Jayden Daniels (70.5), Drake Maye (68.5) and Bo Nix (63.6).
The big concern right now is the drop-off of Chicago’s defensive unit. After a strong start to the season, the Bears’ defence has faltered over the last five weeks, posting their worst defensive grades of the season. Chicago has been outscored 53-0 in the first half over the last three games and they have been on the field for an average of 18:48 in the first half over that span, the most of an defence in the NFL.
DET
CHI