Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
After a not-great nine-game homestand, the Blue Jays start a six-game road trip Tuesday night at the disappointing Boston Red Sox, who sit last in the AL East. Behind ace Dylan Cease, Toronto is a short underdog on the MLB odds with a total of 7.5 runs.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
It’s one of the most historic weeks in Blue Jays history simply by the two historic stadiums they will visit, which also happen to be the two oldest by far in Major League Baseball in Boston’s Fenway Park and Chicago’s Wrigley Field.
The Red Sox fired manager Alex Cora and just about nearly his entire coaching staff weeks ago in hopes of turning the season around. That looks like a lost cause at this point because Boston has almost no power in the lineup, and ace pitcher Garrett Crochet is back on the injured list and not looking like he will return until at least right after the All-Star break if all goes well.
I would fully expect the team to be a seller ahead of the trade deadline. It’s almost a lock that closer Aroldis Chapman will be dealt. The fire-balling southpaw has been marvellous with a 0.44 ERA and 14 saves. Just no reason to keep the 38-year-old at this point, and Chapman could put any contender over the top just like he did way back in 2016 with the Cubs.
Toronto took two of three at Rogers Centre vs. the Red Sox from April 27-29, which was very soon after Cora was fired. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a good series at 5-for-9 with a double and run scored. The Blue Jays have won the season series at Fenway in back-to-back years, going 5-2 there in 2025.
Toronto Blue Jays
While the Blue Jays did activate former All-Star catcher Alejandro Krik over the weekend, they still have plenty of injury concerns. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. missed Saturday and Sunday, both multiple-run losses, with some lower-back tightness – he was able to pinch-hit if needed and is likely to play Tuesday. Guererro had only three hits in his past 26 at-bats.
Infielder Andres Gimenez was scratched from Sunday’s lineup with a wrist problem. Monday’s off-day was badly needed, for an overworked bullpen too as that group has been taxed this season regardless. On Sunday, starting pitcher Patrick Corbin lasted only 3.2 innings.
Ace righty Dylan Cease, among the AL Cy Young favourites at +230, takes the mound for this one. Cease (3-3, 2.91 ERA) dominated the Phillies last time out with 11 strikeouts, one run and three hits allowed but got a no-decision and is winless in four straight games. His 103 strikeouts are among MLB leaders.
Cease lost at home to Boston on April 27 in allowing four runs and seven hits over 5.2 innings. Willson Contreras has seen him the most of any Red Sox batter career and is 4-for-14 with a double and homer.
Boston Red Sox
Boston had a two-game winning streak snapped in a 6-4 home loss to Texas on Sunday to fall to a puzzling 12-22 at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox usually dominate with one of the best home-field advantages in the sport. They haven’t swept any opponent there yet in 2026.
The Sox’s overall record of 29-40 might be a bit misleading as the team’s season run differential of minus-4 hints at close to a .500 club. Like Toronto, Boston has been hit hard by injuries all over the place in 2026.
One major bright spot this season has been 23-year-old lefty Payton Tolle as he’s +2500 to win AL Rookie of the Year. The highly touted prospect is 3-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and has been better at home at 1-1 with a 2.28 ERA in five starts. He started in Toronto on April 28 and took the loss, allowing three runs on four hits over 4.2 innings.
Tolle was a bit wild with four walks and hasn’t had more than two in any other outings this year. The Red Sox are 1-5 in their past six vs. AL East foes.
TOR
BOS