Canada vs. Argentina: Copa America Semifinal Odds, Prediction

Argentina ran the table in Group A with three straight wins, while Canada finished second with a win, loss and draw. Both teams ended their quarterfinal matchup tied 1-1 at the end of regular time and advanced on penalties. La Seleccion knocked off Ecuador and Les Rouges took out Venezuela.

Argentina opened as a heavy -275 favourite to win in regulation time on the Copa America odds, while Canada is +850 and a draw at the end of regulation is +375.

Canada vs. Argentina Betting Odds

These teams have met just twice, with Argentina winning 5-0 in 2010 and 2-0 in the opening match of this tournament. Canada proved to be a much tougher test than many people anticipated as they held Argentina to a scoreless first half and they were within striking distance of tying the game until Argentina scored their second goal in the 88th minute.

Canada is only the third nation ever to reach the knockout stage of their first Copa America and they have a chance to become the second CONCACAF side to make the final of this competition. Defending champion Argentina is tied with Uruguay for the most Copa America titles at 15 and they also have the highest number of victories in tournament history.

This is obviously an uphill battle for Canada as they are the 48th ranked team in the world facing the No. 1 ranked Argentinians. The Copa America futures board, which listed Les Rouges at +8000 to win the tournament prior to the first match, now has them at +2800. Argentina opened as +175 favourites to win the Copa and now sit at -125.

The winner of this match will face the winner of Uruguay (+250 to win the tournament) and Colombia (+350) on July 14 in Miami. The two semifinals losers will play the third-place match in Charlotte on July 13.

Canada

Canada has been hugely impressive in this tournament, conceding just one goal over their last three matches. They have become just the third team ever to make the semifinal of their debut at the Copa America, joining Mexico and Honduras, and they are the first team from the region to make it this far since the United State in 2016. Defensive structure has been key, as Canada has allowed only three goals over their last five matches across all competitions and they haven’t allowed a first-half goal in nine straight games.

Tajon Buchanan remains the biggest loss to the roster. The Inter Milan winger broke his tibia during training prior to the quarterfinal. The team has rallied around Buchanan, with Jacob Shaffelburg holding up Buchanan’s jersey after he scored in the 13th minute against Venezuela. The only change Canada made to the lineup in the quarterfinal was Vancouver Whitecaps wing-back Ali Ahmed replacing Richie Laryea. There likely won’t be any lineup changes in the semifinal.

Argentina

Argentina has lived up to their No. 1 world ranking, keeping three clean sheets in the group stage and not allowing a goal until the 91st minute of the quarterfinal against Ecuador. This marks Argentina’s fifth consecutive trip the semifinal of the Copa America as they look to win a record 16th title. La Seleccion are unbeaten in their last nine matches across all competitions, allowing just three goals in that span. They haven’t lost in regulation time of a major tournament on U.S. soil since they were defeated 3-2 by Romania in the Round of 16 at the 1994 World Cup.

There was a bit of a scare for Argentinian fans when Lionel Messi was held out of the final group stage match due to a sore hamstring, but it was more precautionary and he returned to the starting XI for the quarterfinal. Messi hasn’t scored in the 2024 Copa America, leaving the offence largely to Lautaro Martinez, who leads the tournament with four goals. Martinez has started over Julian Alvarez in the last two games and likely will again on Tuesday.