Jets vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction
It’s must-win time for the Miami Dolphins as they welcome in the freshly-eliminated New York Jets to close out the regular season. If Miami is to clinch their first payoff berth since 2016–17, they need to beat the Jets and have New England lose at Buffalo. Miami is also still going through quarterback uncertainty, as Tua Tagovailoa remains out and backup Teddy Bridgewater is now recovering from a dislocated pinkie finger last weekend. Third-stringer Skylar Thompson was Miami’s only healthy quarterback on their roster, and they have since signed Mike Glennon.
Both clubs are also entering Week 18 on five-game losing streaks. The 8-8 Dolphins as mentioned still have a shot for the post-season, while the 7-9 Jets are officially out.
Kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium starts at 1 p.m. EST, with the Dolphins a one-point favourite and the total at 38.5 on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The good news for Miami is they’ve enjoyed a ton of success at home versus New York, winning six straight times hosting the Jets and eight of the last 10 matchups overall. New York is also 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against Miami.
The under is 6-1 in Miami’s seven home games this season, and the total has gone under in nine of the Jets’ last 11 games overall. Six of the last nine Jets–Dolphins matchups have finished under too.
With these teams AFC East foes, they met back on Week 5 in a 40-17 Jets victory. Ironically, it was third-stringer Skylar Thompson playing nearly the whole game for Miami at quarterback and the benched Zach Wilson for New York.
New York Jets
Mike White’s return under centre last weekend was severely disappointing as a struggling Jets offence didn’t get much better in a 23-6 loss at Seattle. The eliminating loss marked the Jets fifth defeat in a row, a streak where they haven’t cracked over 22 points once. The Jets have now dropped to 27th in scoring this season, wasting a defence that ranks fourth.
If the Jets had been able to score 21 points in their last four outings, they’d be undefeated. The Jets also have the fifth-most giveaways this season at 23, and lost the turnover battle 3-0 last week. And perhaps the worst statistic of all: the Jets have 63.7 rushing yards per game in their last three outings, nearly 20 yards fewer than any other NFL team.
Miami Dolphins
With Skylar Thompson in line to start his first ever NFL game, the Dolphins appear in trouble. Thompson’s averaging 5.2 yards per pass attempt, over three yards fewer than the other Miami pivots. On the other hand, Thompson has two of the league’s top six receivers on his side. Tyreek Hill still has an outside shot to lead the NFL in receiving as he’s currently at 1,687 receiving yards. Second-year standout Jaylen Waddle ranks sixth with 1,312 yards.
Miami’s also now lost four straight one-possession games. Turnovers have typically been the difference too, as Tagovailoa threw three picks in a 26-20 loss on Christmas Day and a pick-six for New England ended up standing as a pivotal score in a 23-21 Dolphins loss. If Thompson can just take care of the football, Miami’s in a good spot.
NYJ
MIA