Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction, Odds & Stats - February 25, 2026

Scoreboard	1	2	3	Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs 32-36-10-4	0	0	2	+6
Tampa Bay Lightning 50-26-4-2	0	2	2	+185

Date	Result	Competition
05/03/26	Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) 2 - 1	Atlantic
05/01/26	Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) 1 - 0	Atlantic
04/29/26	Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) 3 - 2	Atlantic
04/26/26	Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) 3 - 2	Atlantic
04/24/26	Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) 2 - 3	Atlantic
04/21/26	Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) 2 - 3	Atlantic
04/15/26	Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) Ottawa Senators OTT ( 44-27-10-1 ) 1 - 3	Atlantic
04/13/26	Dallas Stars DAL ( 50-20-8-4 ) Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) 6 - 5	Central
04/11/26	Florida Panthers FLA ( 40-38-2-2 ) Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) 6 - 2	Atlantic
04/09/26	Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) NY Islanders Islanders NYI ( 43-34-0-5 ) 3 - 5	Atlantic
04/08/26	Washington Capitals WAS ( 43-30-3-6 ) Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) 4 - 0	Metropolitan
04/04/26	Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) Los Angeles Kings LA ( 35-27-11-9 ) 6 - 7	Atlantic

Team	Puckline	Moneyline	Over / Under
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR	+1.5 0	0	U+60
Tampa Bay Lightning TB	-1.5 0	0	O+60

time	fav	spread	money line	total
Opening 22 Feb 11:32pm	TOR	-1.5 +105	-235	O +6 -110
Closing 22 Feb 11:32pm	TOR	-1.5 +105	-235	O +6 -110

Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	130	Points	79	William Nylander Right Wing Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	43	+ / -	8	Chris Tanev Defense Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	231	Shots	227	Auston Matthews Center Tampa Bay
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Defense Toronto	112	Penalty Mins	95	Max Domi Center Tampa Bay
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	39	Wins	15	Joseph Woll Goaltender Tampa Bay
Dennis Hildeby Goaltender Tampa Bay	2.9	GAA	2.3	Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto

Jake Guentzel Left Wing Toronto	8	Points
Brandon Hagel Left Wing Toronto	6	+ / -
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	31	Shots	Did not qualify
Brandon Hagel Left Wing Toronto	13	Penalty Mins
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	3	Wins
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	2.2	GAA

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR Tampa Bay Lightning TB

	Stat
27	Games Won	37
21	Games Lost	14
2-7-1	Last 10	5-5-0
16-9-5-1	W L Streak	18-9-0
24-32	Against The Spread	27-28
-1381	Money	780
16-9-5-1	Home	18-9-0
11-12-3	Away	19-5-2-2
32-19-5	Total	24-25-6

date	home-away	ats	o/u	TB:Shots	TB:Goals	TB:Assists	TOR:Shots	TOR:Goals	TOR:Assists
03/07/2026	TOR 2 - TB 5	TB	Over 0	33	5	10	29	2	1
02/25/2026	TB 4 - TOR 2	TB	Under 6	36	4	8	34	2	4
12/08/2025	TOR 2 - TB 0	TOR	Under 6	29	0	0	25	2	2
04/09/2025	TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT)	TOR	Over 6	31	4	7	28	3	6
01/20/2025	TOR 5 - TB 3	TOR	Over 6.5	30	3	6	28	5	8
11/30/2024	TB 3 - TOR 5	TOR	Over 6	29	5	10	41	3	5
10/21/2024	TOR 5 - TB 2	TOR	Over 6.5	34	2	4	29	5	7
04/17/2024	TB 6 - TOR 4	TB	Over 7	38	4	7	32	6	11
04/03/2024	TOR 1 - TB 4	TB	Under 6.5	25	4	8	29	1	2
11/06/2023	TOR 6 - TB 5	TOR	Over 7	31	5	10	34	6	12
10/21/2023	TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT)	TOR	Under 7	52	4	7	31	3	6
04/29/2023	TB 1 - TOR 2 (OT)	TOR	Under 6.5	22	2	3	32	1	2
04/27/2023	TOR 2 - TB 4	TB	Under 6.5	38	4	8	30	2	4
04/24/2023	TB 4 - TOR 5 (OT)	TOR	Over 6.5	37	5	10	31	4	8
04/22/2023	TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT)	TOR	Over 6.5	27	4	7	39	3	6
04/20/2023	TOR 7 - TB 2	TOR	Over 6	22	2	4	37	7	12
04/18/2023	TOR 3 - TB 7	TB	Over 6	34	7	11	31	3	6
04/11/2023	TB 3 - TOR 4	TOR	Over 6.5	24	4	7	48	3	4
12/20/2022	TOR 4 - TB 1	TOR	Under 6	19	1	1	40	4	6
12/03/2022	TB 4 - TOR 3	TB	Over 6	39	3	3	33	4	7

date	score	ats	o/u	Shots	Goals	Assists
04/15/2026	OTT 3 - TOR 1	L	Under 6.5	20	1	2
04/13/2026	TOR 5 - DAL 6	L	Over 6.5	32	6	8
04/11/2026	TOR 2 - FLA 6	L	Over 6.5	25	6	9
04/09/2026	NYI 5 - TOR 3	L	Over 6.5	16	3	4
04/08/2026	TOR 0 - WAS 4	L	Under 6.5	20	4	7
04/04/2026	LA 7 - TOR 6	L	Over 6	20	6	8
04/02/2026	SJ 4 - TOR 1	L	Under 6.5	19	1	2
03/30/2026	ANA 4 - TOR 5 (OT)	W	Over 7	29	5	9
03/28/2026	STL 5 - TOR 1	L	Under 6	13	1	2
03/25/2026	TOR 4 - NYR 3	W	Over 6	43	3	6

date	score	ats	o/u	Shots	Goals	Assists
05/03/2026	TB 1 - MON 2	L	Under 5	29	1	2
05/01/2026	MON 0 - TB 1 (OT)	W	Under 5.5	30	0	0
04/29/2026	TB 2 - MON 3	L	Under 5.5	40	2	2
04/26/2026	MON 2 - TB 3	W	Under 6	18	2	4
04/24/2026	MON 3 - TB 2	L	Under 6	29	3	5
04/21/2026	TB 3 - MON 2	W	Under 6	34	3	5
04/19/2026	TB 3 - MON 4 (OT)	L	Over 6	23	3	6
04/15/2026	TB 2 - NYR 4	L	Under 6.5	31	2	4
04/13/2026	TB 4 - DET 3	W	Over 6.5	22	4	6
04/11/2026	BOS 1 - TB 2	W	Under 6	21	1	1

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR Tampa Bay Lightning TB

avg	rank	edge in	rank	avg
3.5	2	Goals Per Game	6	3.1
3.5	15	Goals Against Per Game	10	2.9
24.2	11	Shots Per Game	24	19.6
33.7	27	Shots Against Per Game	16	25.0
14.5	9	Shooting %	4	16.1
10.4	6	Opponent Shooting %	12	11.4
-9.5	30	Shot Differential Per Game	26	-5.43
14.5	9	Scoring Efficiency Ratio	4	16.1
.900	3	Save %	4	.890
.860	2	Opponent Save %	2	.860
13.8	7	Penalty Minutes Per Game	1	50.7
1	2	Power Play Goals Per Game	2	1
1.5	15	Power Play Goals Against Per Game	14	1.29
26.1	5	Power Play %	11	21.2
69.0	21	Penalty Kill %	12	82.0
1.96	15	Blocks To Shots On Goal Ratio	10	2.24

offence

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

	Season stats	rank
Goals	3.07	16
Shots	26.33	23
Power Play (%)	21	17
Faceoff (%)	54	3
Penalty Mins	748	12

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

	Season stats	rank
Goals	3.49	4
Shots	28.11	14
Power Play (%)	21	15
Faceoff (%)	47	29
Penalty Mins	1207	1

defence

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

	Season stats	rank
Goals	3.07	16
Shots	26.33	23
Power Play (%)	21	17
Faceoff (%)	54	3
Penalty Mins	748	12

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

	Season stats	rank
Goals	3.49	4
Shots	28.11	14
Power Play (%)	21	15
Faceoff (%)	47	29
Penalty Mins	1207	1

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Calle Jarnkrok (C)	Out Wed	Undisclosed - 15 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Dakota Joshua (C)	out for season	Upper Body - 09 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Brandon Carlo (D)	out for season	Lower Body - 09 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Anthony Stolarz (G)	out for season	Lower Body - 09 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D)	Ques Wed	Lower Body - 03 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Morgan Rielly (D)	Ques Tues	Lower Body - 21 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Anthony Stolarz (G)	Ques Tues	Neck - 21 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D)	Ques Tues	Personal - 15 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Auston Matthews (C)	out for season	Knee - 13 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Joseph Woll (G)	Ques Thurs	Illness - 19 / 02 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Nick Paul (LW)	Ques Fri	Illness - 29 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Pontus Holmberg (RW)	Ques Sun	Upper Body - 22 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Charle-Edouard D'Astous (D)	Ques Fri	Undisclosed - 20 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Zemgus Girgensons (LW)	Ques Mon	Undisclosed - 11 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Darren Raddysh (D)	Ques Wed	Undisclosed - 11 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Brandon Hagel (LW)	Ques Sat	Lower Body - 09 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Scott Sabourin (RW)	Ques Mon	Undisclosed - 01 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Brandon Hagel (LW)	Ques Tues	Undisclosed - 01 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Nikita Kucherov (RW)	Ques Tues	Illness - 29 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Victor Hedman (D)	Out indefinitely	Personal - 20 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

No posts found.

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

No posts found.

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

Over is 6-2 in Maple Leafs last 8 Wednesday games.

Maple Leafs are 21-8 in their last 29 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.

Over is 6-2-1 in Maple Leafs last 9 games as a favorite.

Maple Leafs are 6-20 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +201 or greater.

Over is 21-7-3 in Maple Leafs last 31 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

Lightning are 37-18 in their last 55 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.

Over is 7-0-1 in Lightning last 8 Wednesday games.

Under is 9-3-1 in Lightning last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.

Lightning are 6-24 in their last 30 games as an underdog of +201 or greater.

Under is 3-1-3 in Lightning last 7 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.

Team	Win / Loss	ATS	OU
Buffalo Sabres BUF	50-23	49-36	45-34-6
Tampa Bay Lightning TB	50-26	35-45	33-38-9
Montreal Canadiens MON	48-24	49-36	45-34-6
Boston Bruins BOS	45-27	45-33	35-34-9
Ottawa Senators OTT	44-27	30-43	37-31-5
Detroit Red Wings DET	41-31	38-34	34-30-8
Florida Panthers FLA	40-38	38-34	34-30-8
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR	32-36	30-41	40-23-8

Toronto Maple Leafs

Pitchers

POS	Player

Hitters

POS	Player

Tampa Bay Lightning

Pitchers

POS	Player

Hitters

POS	Player

Game Statistics

Shots

5.9

11.1

Shooting %

Penalties

Penalty Minutes

Power Plays

Goals

Team	Last 5 Matches
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 )	L L L L L
Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 )	W L W L W

Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	130	Points	79	William Nylander Right Wing Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	43	+ / -	8	Chris Tanev Defense Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	231	Shots	227	Auston Matthews Center Tampa Bay
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Defense Toronto	112	Penalty Mins	95	Max Domi Center Tampa Bay
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	39	Wins	15	Joseph Woll Goaltender Tampa Bay
Dennis Hildeby Goaltender Tampa Bay	2.9	GAA	2.3	Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto

Jake Guentzel Left Wing Toronto	8	Points
Brandon Hagel Left Wing Toronto	6	+ / -
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	31	Shots	Did not qualify
Brandon Hagel Left Wing Toronto	13	Penalty Mins
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	3	Wins
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	2.2	GAA

Game Preview

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, NHL Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in must-win territory as they return from the Olympic break with a visit to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Team	Win / Loss	ATS	OU
Buffalo Sabres BUF	50-23	49-36	45-34-6
Tampa Bay Lightning TB	50-26	35-45	33-38-9
Montreal Canadiens MON	48-24	49-36	45-34-6
Boston Bruins BOS	45-27	45-33	35-34-9
Ottawa Senators OTT	44-27	30-43	37-31-5
Detroit Red Wings DET	41-31	38-34	34-30-8
Florida Panthers FLA	40-38	38-34	34-30-8
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR	32-36	30-41	40-23-8

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction, Odds & Stats February 25, 2026

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