Tampa Bay got its season back on track to a degree in Week 12 when they stomped all over the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, 30-7. The Bucs are only 5-6 on the season, but Atlanta has faltered lately, which leaves the door ajar for a division crown. The Carolina Panthers didn’t win last week, falling 30-27 to the mighty Chiefs, but overall can feel good about the second half of their campaign.

Our NFL odds believe the Buccaneers will make the Panthers walk the plank; Tampa is a -6 favourite.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

One would think that head-to-head games between such familiar foes would produce back-and-forth results. The truth is that the Floridians hold an 8-2 edge over the past 10 matches. That includes a 9-0 sleep fest that concluded the 2023 regular season. The Buccaneers are riding a three-game winning streak over the Panthers. QB Baker Mayfield has already bested Carolina twice since arriving in Tampa.

Todd Bowles’s ensemble is trying to get things done despite not having WRs Chris Godwin (IR) Kameron Johnson (IR). At least, that’s what betters can tell themselves when they see that the Bucs are a respectable 7-4 against the spread. The team has covered thrice in a row despite actually going 1-2 straight up in those matches. Their win in New York last Sunday stopped a four-game slide.

This makes this game against the Panthers all the more fascinating from a betting perspective. Carolina has also handled the spread three times in a row, including in the defeat to Kansas City in Week 12. This is the most even spread the Panthers will face since Week 6 when they were also +6 underdog. As the calendar shifts to December (Sunday is Dec. 1), are the Panthers that team that has an honourable late-season run and plays spoiler?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everything went the Buccaneers’ way last Sunday against the dazed and confused Giants. When RB Rachaad White scored from one yard out late in the third quarter to make it 30-0, it was time to park the bus.

Tampa Bay amassed a whopping 450 total yards, which made their recent slide feel like a distant memory. Things were so good that Mayfield gave an uber-exaggerated Tommy DeVito hand gesture celebration after his 10-yard TD rush in the second quarter that made it 23-0. Mayfield connected with no fewer than 11 eligible receivers. Mike Evans and Bucky Irving led the way with 68 and 64 yards, respectively.

The humungous caveat is that the Giants are a tire fire this season, and the Bucs had lost four in a row prior. They need more wins and they need them ASAP.

Carolina Panthers

There are teams like the Broncos and Bucs that can rue their chances after losing narrowly to the Chiefs. Then there are the Panthers, who can honestly feel pretty good about themselves.

To be fair, they allowed the Chiefs to do to them what so many other victims have. RB Chuba Hubbard’s one-yard TD run late in the fourth quarter (and subsequent two-point conversion) did no better than tie the game at 27-27 and award Patrick Mahomes 1:46 to take his side down the field for a game-winning field goal. Saying the Panthers should have known better is both accurate and harsh. They should have, but one can’t predict the mesmeric 33-yard run Mahomes performed on that final drive.

Bryce Young was, again, decent, finishing 21-for-35, 263 yards, a TD to David Moore and a nice selection of darts tossed all day. Moore had a season-high of 81 yards on six catches to boot. Perhaps most impressively, the defence sacked Mahomes five times and got eight QB hits on him.

Who Will Win Buccaneers vs. Panthers?