2026 US Open Third Round Betting Odds, Picks: Shapovalov, Fernandez look to advance as underdogs

On the whole, it has already been an entertaining week in New York. We have seen one massive upset with Novak Djokovic bowing out right away at the hands of Mariano Navone, while Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils lost his opening match to Stefanos Tsitsipas. On the women’s side, all of the top title contenders have been unscathed.

Now that it’s time for third-round competition, let’s take a look at some of the best bets to make on Friday. 

Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of U.S. Open match odds and U.S. Open futures.

Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov best bet: Over 0.5 tiebreakers (-112) 

Ben Shelton is one of the biggest servers every time he takes the court. Denis Shapovalov – when he is playing well – is the same. That means service breaks could come at a premium in what is their fifth head-to-head showdown. Three of their four previous encounters have required at least one tiebreaker, including two at the 2024 Washington, D.C. tournament.

Shelton played a tiebreaker in each of his first two rounds at this event against Tallon Griekspoor and Hubert Hurkacz, while Shapovalov was pushed to a third-set ‘breaker by Luca Van Assche on Wednesday afternoon. 

Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Fernandez best bet: Over 19.5 games (-118) 

Jessica Pegula is obviously a heavy favourite as the No. 3 player in the world, but Leylah Fernandez cannot be discounted – especially not at the U.S. Open. After all, the Canadian once made it all the way to the final of this tournament (2021). Fernandez may not be in the same form five years later, but she has been building confidence during this hard-court summer. The 23-year-old upset Mirra Andreeva en route to the Toronto fourth round last month and has made mincemeat out of both Shuai Zhang and Mananchaya Sawangkaew so far in New York.

The head-to-head series stands at 4-0 in Pegula’s favour, but two of their matchups have gone deep into a third set. Three of the four have lasted at least 22 games. This line is probably playable all the way up to 21.5; getting it at 19.5 is simply an insult to a player of Fernandez’s calibre. 

Frances Tiafoe vs. Valentin Vacherot best bet: Tiafoe -2.5 games (-135) 

Frances Tiafoe is playing so well right now that he has established himself as a realistic title contender – or at least was a realistic title contender along with a handful of other guys until we saw the form that Carlos Alcaraz showcased through his first two matches. Alas, Tiafoe would not have to worry about facing Alcaraz until the quarterfinals. For now, the American can focus on Valentin Vacherot – for whom the 2026 campaign has been an injury-plagued slog.

Since reaching the Monte-Carlo semifinals in early April, the Monagasque has picked up a grand total four wins. That is largely due to a foot injury that has not kept him out of too many tournaments but has left him at less than 100 percent for most of his matches. Vacherot has done well to defeat Aleksandar Kovacevic and Kamil Majchrzak so far in New York, but Tiafoe represents a steep step up in competition. The world No. 12, who is a two-time U.S. Open semifinalist, is coming off a recent run to the final of the Cincinnati Masters.