Super Bowl 59 First Touchdown Prediction: DeVonta Smith is a sneaky-good play
Super Bowl 59 is less than two weeks away and I’m diving right in with some player prop picks for Eagles vs. Chiefs. And you know what they say, no risk, no reward, so rather than anytime touchdowns, I’m going to call my shot with a first TD scorer. Let’s take a look at the top candidates.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Point Spread: NFL 2025 Super Bowl 59 Odds, Prediction
Printable Super Bowl 59 Party Prop Bets
Saquon Barkley (+400)
Saquon Barkley is an easy pick as the favourite to score the game’s first touchdown. The dude has absolutely torched the NFL all year, rushing for over 2,000 yards in the regular season and putting up five rushing TDs in three playoff games. Barkley is trying to go back-to-back on this prop after rushing for a 60-yard touchdown on Philadelphia’s first play in the NFC Championship Game, the first of three TDs he had on the day.
I have a bit of hesitation for Barkley, however. Every football fan in the world knows the Eagles’ game plan is to give Barkley the ball, so you can be sure Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ elite rushing defence has a plan to contain him. I say ‘contain’ because there’s no stopping Barkley, he’ll get his stats, I just think Nick Sirianni and co. will try to establish a passing attack before unleashing Barkley later in the game.
Saquon Barkley first TD scorer (+400)
Jalen Hurts (+700)
That brings me to Jalen Hurts, who cashed this prop against Kansas City in Super Bowl 57 and finished with three rushing TDs in that game. Hurts just put up three rushing TDs in the NFC Championship Game and he has seven rushing TDs in the last six full games he played (he only played a couple snaps in the regular season finale).
Another reason I like Hurts in this spot is sort of a backhanded compliment. I just don’t trust his passing game. Hurts put up 248 passing yards against Washington, but before that he had 128 passing yards against the Rams and 131 against the Packers. I see Philly getting to the two-yard line and Hurts capitalizing on the “tush-push”.
Jalen Hurts first TD scorer (+700)
Kareem Hunt (+900)
Don’t sleep on Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt in this game. Hunt has cashed in with a rushing touchdown in four straight games and the Chiefs are notoriously tricky with how they utilize Hunt and Isiah Pacheco together. Pacheco has been the lead back most of the year, but Hunt remains particularly dangerous as a red-zone threat.
I can build a similar case for Hunt as I did for Hurts. I don’t see the first touchdown of the game being another monster 60-yard run like Barkley had last week, I think it gets pounded in from a play at the goal line. Kansas City likes to rely on veterans in those critical moments, so I see Hunt as better value than Pacheco.
Kareem Hunt first TD scorer (+900)
Dark horse pick: DeVonta Smith (+1700)
There’s no question Barkley is Philadelphia’s top option on the ground and A.J. Brown is the top target in the air. That gives a lot of value to DeVonta Smith, who should have a chance for some open looks while the Chiefs focus on Barkley and Brown. And don’t forget, last time these teams faced each other, Smith went off for 100 yards on seven receptions.
More importantly, the Eagles like to target Smith in the red zone. He was the most targeted Philadelphia receiver in the red zone this year, seeing 12 red zone targets, eight receptions and a rushing attempt. Smith has also had the most even workload of all Eagles receivers in the playoffs, recording four targets and receptions in each of Philadelphia’s three playoff games.
