Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 8 Betting Odds, Prediction and Picks: Dolphins Look to Build on First Win
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Kevin Tompkins
An AFC East clash is on tap in Miami as the 4-3 New England Patriots, coming off a 30-24 Thursday night loss to the Chicago Bears, head south to Hard Rock Stadium to take on a Dolphins team that finally, despite their best or worst efforts, found the win column last week with a victory over the New York Jets.
The Patriots have been a tale of two venues this season, going a perfect 3-0 at home, including wins over the Raiders and Jets. On the flip side, they sit at 1-3 away from Gillette Stadium. Drake Maye has shaken off a slow start and has looked like one of the better quarterbacks in the league since October began.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins opened the season 0-5, including a loss to the Raiders in Week 1, before breaking through with a 28-25 win over the Jets at MetLife Stadium in Week 7. Malik Willis threw two touchdowns to rookie Caleb Douglas and ran for another, while not turning the ball over at all.
This is the first of two meetings between these division rivals this season, with the rematch set for Week 18 in Foxborough.
For more picks across the full slate, check out our NFL predictions for this week’s games.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Kickoff, Weather, TV, Streaming Info
In Canada, Patriots vs. Dolphins kicks off Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET and can be streamed nationwide on DAZN through NFL Game Pass. The U.S. broadcast is on CBS.
The weather forecast for Week 8’s game calls for warm, humid conditions with temperatures around 27C and a high chance of rain and thunderstorms. Wet conditions could take some of the shine off the passing game, and the Patriots have historically struggled in the South Florida heat. New England does get a rest edge, with extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night in Week 7.
NFL Betting Odds, Point Spread, Trends
The visiting Patriots are 7.0-point road favourites with a -310 money line. Meanwhile, the home Dolphins are placed at +250 on the money line, and the game total sits at 43.5 points.
Spread
This season, New England has been one of the most efficient offences in the league when it isn’t giving the ball away. The Patriots average 22.9 points and 375 yards per game and rank fourth in the NFL at 6.0 yards per play. Maye threw for 321 yards and accounted for three touchdowns in Chicago, but a red zone interception helped swing that game, and New England’s minus-seven turnover differential is the biggest factor holding it back.
As for the Dolphins, Willis gives them a different dimension with his legs, and Miami averages 131.5 rushing yards per game. The problem is, well, everything else. The Dolphins score just 16.3 points per game, allow 26.2 and have only six sacks on the season, the fewest in the NFL. Against a Patriots offensive line that has been held together with patchwork, Miami’s lack of a pass rush is a major issue.
With the Patriots’ passing advantage and pass rush edge, siding with New England makes sense, though laying more than a touchdown on the road in a division game with storms in the forecast makes the under worth a look as well.
NFL Player Odds and Props
New England Patriots
A.J. Brown UNDER 57.5 receiving yards
Brown has been a big-name addition who hasn’t paid off yet for the Patriots. He hurt his ankle in the season opener in Seattle, catching three for 26 yards on four targets, then spent several weeks on injured reserve. Since returning, he still hasn’t looked like the player who strung together four straight 1,000-yard seasons in Philadelphia, and his ankle has kept him on the injury report.
Meanwhile, Drake Maye has found other targets, and this offence is not dictated by one sole target. It’s truly a “death by a thousand cuts” offence rather than depending on the big play. Against Miami, they may not need to dig deep into their bag of tricks against a team with one win, even in a divisional game. Despite 16 targets in his two games back, Brown has gone under 57.5 yards in each game. If the Patriots get ahead of the Dolphins, Maye may only have to hand the ball off for the majority of the game. We’re going to depend on game script here to lead the way toward taking the under on Brown’s receiving yards prop.
Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis OVER 32.5 rushing yards
Willis is the key to any Dolphins upset, and his legs are clearly his most dangerous weapon. Miami builds its offence around designed runs, zone reads and scrambles, and Willis has already eclipsed this prop in each of the last two weeks. Willis is just 17 yards behind Josh Allen for the most rushing yards by a quarterback this season, so all we’re asking of Willis is to hit just shy of his per-game average of 37 rushing yards. That’s not a tough ask for an athletic signal-caller like Willis.
New England Patriots
Maye has carried this offence through a rash of injuries at receiver, and he’ll need help again with the Patriots having used their 10th offensive line combination of the season against Chicago in Week 7. Rhamondre Stevenson was the surprise star in that game with 115 receiving yards, including a 48-yard touchdown to close out the first half. Rookie tight end Eli Raridon has emerged as a red zone threat with two touchdowns, giving Maye another option alongside Henry and Brown.
Defensively, Mike Vrabel’s group brings a really solid pass rush, with 17 sacks through seven games. They’ve been better than not in most games, the only blemish being a 35-6 blowout in Jacksonville. They held the Seahawks to 13 points, held off the potent Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, and took care of business against lesser teams like the Raiders and Jets.
Miami Dolphins
With the season-ending injury to star running back De’Von Achane, Ollie Gordon II has been the workhorse for Miami with 339 yards and four touchdowns on 72 carries, and his 4.7 yards per carry gives the Dolphins a physical answer if New England plays lighter boxes. Willis completed 14-of-21 passes for 208 yards against the Jets, spreading the ball between receivers Malik Washington and Douglas, as well as tight end Greg Dulcich. Douglas’ 63-yard fourth-quarter touchdown showed the vertical element this offence had been missing, but getting that consistently is another story altogether.
The defence has to find a way to generate pressure without selling out. Miami’s six sacks are the fewest in the league. If the Dolphins can’t rattle Maye, it’s hard to see them keeping pace, but a sloppy, rain-soaked game could keep this within a touchdown. The odds are against that, though, considering the talent of both teams. But hey, it’s a division game; anything can happen!
NE
MIA