Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Odds: WNBA Preview, Picks and Prediction

Tuesday’s loss to the Indiana Fever was the latest in a string of demoralizing results for Sandy Brondello’s side, who have now dropped 11 consecutive games and sit at 10-24, the third-worst record in the league. The Tempo’s previous outing in this building wasn’t any better: a 79-62 defeat on July 14 in which the Mystics’ Kiki Iriafen had 25 points and 14 rebounds, Shakira Austin added 17 points and 10 rebounds, and Washington outrebounded Toronto by a stunning 47-26 margin.

The Mystics, meanwhile, are playing the best basketball of the Sydney Johnson era. Washington enters Wednesday winning eight of their last 10 games and at 20-14; they’re on the fringes of legitimate playoff contention after the stunning rebuild few saw coming in the preseason. Austin has been named AP Player of the Week two consecutive weeks, and the Mystics have dominated the season series 3-0. Tip-off at CareFirst Arena is at 7:40 PM ET, so let’s dive into my Tempo vs. Mystics preview.

Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics WNBA Odds and Betting Trends

Washington opens as a 10.5-point home favourite at -520 on the money line, with Toronto at +390. The Over/Under is set at 168.5, with both sides carrying -110 odds. The previous three meetings saw an average of just 148.3 points per game; the Mystics won the first meeting to start the season 68-65, the second game in June 86-85, and their latest meeting on July 14, 79-62. They clearly have Toronto’s number.

Washington carries the best against-the-spread record in the WNBA at 21-13 (61.8%), and they’ve covered in eight of their last 10 games. The only two they didn’t cover came in their two losses to the Las Vegas Aces. Meanwhile, they have a 16-18 record to the Over. On the flip side, Toronto has cashed the Over in 22 of their 34 games (64.7%), the highest clip in the league. They are also a respectable 18-16 ATS (52.9%) and covered in two of the three meetings with Washington this season.

Toronto Tempo

The Tempo’s problems are structural and not going away. Marina Mabrey is back from the neck injury that sidelined her for the Valkyries game on August 2 and is the team’s only consistent scoring threat at 20.8 points per game, but Washington’s Sonia Citron has made it a personal assignment to limit her this season. Citron held Mabrey to eight points in the July 14 loss, well below her average, and Johnson credited that performance as central to Washington’s defensive game plan. 

Brittney Sykes (foot) returned to action in Tuesday’s game against the Indiana Fever, but F Maria Conde (calf) and F Nyara Sabally (calf) aren’t expected to play, leaving the Tempo’s roster dangerously thin behind Mabrey. Toronto ranks dead last in the league in rebounding rate (47.5%), a number Washington will exploit again on Wednesday night, as Washington is #1 in the WNBA (54.4%).

Washington Mystics

Austin is the story of the WNBA’s second half of the season. The fifth-year centre is averaging career highs across the board at 16.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game, has recorded 15 double-doubles (T-fourth in the league), and is playing with a physicality and confidence that has transformed Washington’s ceiling. 

Coach Johnson described her and Iriafen as “one of the best frontcourts in the league,” and it is hard to argue the point; the Mystics are the only team with two players in the top ten in rebounds per game. 

WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics?

Best Bet: Shakira Austin Over 19.5 Points (-125)

Austin has been Washington’s most dominant force across their 10-game run and has scored at least 20 points in six of her last nine games, averaging 22.6 PPG during that span. Toronto ranks among the worst teams in the league at defending the interior, allowing the second-most points to opposing centres, and Washington’s offensive game plan in all three prior meetings has been built around getting Austin and Iriafen downhill early. 

Back Austin to clear 19.5 points in a game where Washington should win comfortably, and she will be asked to dominate the paint.

Final Score Prediction: Tempo 74 | Mystics 88