Toronto Blue Jays’ playoff odds have more than tripled in the month of August

Jordan Ramsay
Last Updated: 40 minutes ago

A historically weak American League has breathed new life into the Toronto Blue Jays’ playoff chances.

Just how bad is the American League? Well, the Baltimore Orioles currently hold the third and final AL wild-card spot with a 61-64 record. That means if the postseason started today, Baltimore would be the first team ever to make the playoffs with a losing record in a full-length season.

As of now, the lowest win total to claim an AL wild-card spot was the 85-win Minnesota Twins in 2017. That record is on pace to be broken in 2026 as seven teams with records below .500 are all in the running for the final AL wild-card spot.

With the way the American League has struggled this year, the Blue Jays are getting hot at the perfect time. Toronto has won 12 of their last 18 games and moved from five games back of a wild-card spot to 0.5 back.

Oddsmakers had the Jays were pegged around +1300 to make the playoffs on Aug. 6, but that number has improved to +310 on Aug. 18. That’s an implied probability improvement of roughly 7.1 per cent to 24.4 per cent.

Here’s how the Blue Jays stack up in the AL wild-card race.

Don’ forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of MLB game odds, MLB futures and MLB specials and props.

Wild-card teams

*Entering Tuesday, Aug. 18

Position	Team	Wins	Losses	Win%	Games Back
WC 1	New York Yankees	69	55	.556	+8.5
WC 2	Boston Red Sox	67	58	.536	+6.0
WC 3	Baltimore Orioles	61	64	.488	-
4.	Texas Rangers	61	64	.488	-
5.	Detroit Tigers	61	64	.488	-
6.	Minnesota Twins	61	65	.484	0.5
7.	Toronto Blue Jays	61	65	.484	0.5
8.	Cleveland Guardians	60	65	.480	1.0
9.	Seattle Mariners	59	66	.472	2.0

In a crowded wild-card race, the Blue Jays have one of the easier strengths of schedule, which you can read about further here. After this week’s road series’ against the Rays and Yankees, Toronto won’t face another team with a record above .500 for the rest of the regular season.

Worst records to make playoffs

The wild-card hasn’t been around long relative to baseball’s storied history. Following the infamous 1994 MLB strike, a single wild-card spot was established in 1995 for the best non-division winner in both the American League and National League. A second wild-card team for each league was added in 2012 and a third in 2022.

Even with the added playoff spots, no AL team has made the playoffs with a worse record than the 2017 Twins (85-77).

It’s been a bit easier to make the playoffs in the National League’s history. The 1997 Astros and 2008 Dodgers both won their divisions with 84-78 records, while the Diamondbacks and Marlins grabbed wild-card spots in 2023 with the same record. The Cardinals even won the World Series in 2006 after going 83-78.

Team	Record
2005 San Diego Padres	82-80
2025 Cincinnati Reds	83-79
2006 St. Louis Cardinals	83-78
1997 Houston Astros	84-78
2008 L.A. Dodgers	84-78
2023 Arizona Diamondbacks	84-78
2023 Miami Marlins	84-78
2017 Minnesota Twins	85-77
2007 Chicago Cubs	85-77

For context, if the Blue Jays want to equal the worst-ever AL wild-card team record of 85 wins, they need to go 24-12 over their remaining 36 games. That would be a 108-win pace or a .666 win percentage, better than any other team in MLB this year.

Blue Jays history

There is a bit of precedent in Toronto’s franchise history to this year’s record, specifically in 2015 and 2021.

However, the 2015 and 2021 editions of the Jays played completely different styles. Those lineups were stacked with offensive firepower that led MLB in home runs. They also each had positive run differentials that showed they were better than their record indicated. In comparison, the 2026 Blue Jays are 29th in home runs with a negative-57 run differential.

In 2015, Toronto entered August two games back of the final wild-card spot and one game above .500. That year’s team went on to win 11 straight games between Aug. 2-13 en route to an AL East title.

The 2021 Jays were actually farther behind than this year’s team at four games back of the final wild-card spot. Toronto was 63-55 at the same point in 2021, but the AL was much stronger. Despite posting a 28-16 record down the stretch (.636 winning percentage), the Blue Jays ultimately missed the playoffs by one game in 2021.