Copa America Top Scorer Odds, Prediction: Who Will Win the Golden Boot?

Edgar Chaput | Updated Jun 19, 2024

Soccer: International Friendly Soccer-Guatemala at Argentina

Copa America 2024 is about to begin and the great goal scorers of the Americas are ready to put on a show. But who will tally the most and earn the Golden Boot?

The stages are set across the United States to host the 2024 Copa America. The best players from soccer nations like Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Colombia will go at it to help prove that their country reigns supreme. Hopefully along the way fans in the stands and at home will be treated to some golaços (great goals). As with every league and competition there is a Golden Boot awarded tp the player who nets the highest tally. Who could that be this summer?

Don’t forget to check out our Copa America 2024 odds page for all the action.

Copa American 2024 Golden Boot Betting Odds

Lionel Messi

What?!? Messi has the best odds at +300? Who are we kidding? Of course he does. Even at 36 years of age and after who knows how many clicks, he’s still firing on all cylinders. It is unbelievable that from 2008-09 through 2020-21 at Barcelona, his worst season was 2013-14 when he netted 31 times in all competitions. His worst. That was followed up by a couple of “subpar” years in Paris when he scored 26 and 32 goals. So far in 2024 for Inter Miami he has 12 markers in the same number of matches.

Of course his greatest accomplishment was winning the 2022 World Cup and scoring seven goals in the process.

Vinicius Junior

As the sun begins to set on the careers of Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo (as in, they have fewer great seasons ahead of them than behind them), Vinicius Junior (+450) is in prime position to become the next best player. Funnily enough, his rival would have been Kylian Mbappe had the latter remained in Ligue 1. Lo and behold, they’ll be suiting up together for Real Madrid next season.

His numbers don’t shout out at stats sheet nerds like Messi’s. Then again, for a few seasons Karim Benzema was netting a lot in Madrid. Last season it was Jude Bellingham. That said, Vini Jr. has a knack for big goals. What’s more, it’s not as if his figures are small. He’s netted 22, 23, and 24 goals in all competitions in the past three seasons.

Of note, the one thing he has not done is score a lot for his country. He’s only found the back of the net three times in 30 games when donning the colours of the Seleçao. Copa 2024 would be a brilliant moment for a coming out party on the international stage.

Darwin Nunez

It’s intriguing to spot Darwin Nunez in third place with +500. The 24-year-old Uruguayan made a name for himself at Benfica in Portugal’s Primeira Liga with a breakout 2021-22 campaign that saw him net 34 times in 41 games. That followed up respectable 16 and 14-goal seasons.

His efforts got him a beautiful contract with Liverpool where, for two campaigns, things have been…solid (15 and 18 goals). Writing about Nunez is tough. He’s a good player. A really good player. Yet he somehow doesn’t score as much as most think he should. His attitude has been criticized and it’s been said he never fit in well with Jurgen Klopp’s style, although that talking point is moot now that Arne Slot is in charge at Anfield.

His best year internationally was 2023 when he bagged a quintet of goals in only six matches.

Julian Alvarez

After a couple of brilliant campaigns in 2021 and 2022 for Argentinian club River Plate (24 and 18 goals), Pep Guardiola brought Julian Alvarez (+700) in to be another tool in his arsenal of weapons of mass destruction at Manchester City. He tallied 17 times in 2022-23, which was a treble season for City, and then 19 times in 2023-24, which saw the club “only” win the Premier League.

The 24-year-old is a fun dark horse candidate for the Golden Boot. After all, who better to feed him brilliant passes than teammate Lionel Messi? Of note, Alvarez has seven career goals for his country, all of which came in 2022, four in the World Cup. It’s wild to think it’s been nearly two years since his scored for his country.


Another Brazilian who knows a thing or two about success thanks to his time with La Liga’s Real Madrid. Rodrygo (+800), 23, is a fantastic player, but most would agree that he plays second fiddle to Vini Jr. at Madrid. Not that being second-best to a player like that is shameful, but people will mention his teammate’s name first before Rodrygo himself.

The 2022-23 season was the one that saw Rodrygo’s talents sky-rocket, as he more than doubled the previous campaign’s tally with 19 goals in all competitions. That was followed up by a 17-goal season in 2023-24 and, of course, Liga and Champions League coronations. He’s also been efficient for Brazil this year, netting twice in only three games.

Lautaro Martinez

We mention a sixth option for a few reasons. For one, Lautaro Martinez is the third Argentinian in the top six. Two, his +800 price tag equals that of Rodrygo, so it would be rash to mention one but not the other. Third, he’s been sensational for Inter Milan three years in a row, scoring 25, 28, and 27 goals from 2021-22 through 2023-24.

He has a World Cup to his name (2022, obviously), a Serie A title (2023-24) and a Coppa Italia trophy on his mantle (2022-23). The only slip up was a Champions League final defeat to Manchester City in 2023.

Copa America 2024 Golden Boot Prediction

Messi is never a bad answer to any question about which player can accomplish such or such feat.

But if we want to have some fun, Vinicius Jr. and Lautaro Martinez are interesting bets. For one, they are both excellent players. Two, they’re on teams that have the best chances to reach the final, meaning they’ll play the most games. Third, they’ve both been tearing it up at extremely high levels (La Liga, Champions League, Serie A).

Vinicius Jr wins the Golden Boot.