US Open Women’s Semifinals Odds and Best Bets: Sabalenka, Gauff Headline Final Four

The women take centre stage at the U.S. Open on Thursday night. And what a semifinal lineup it is, with Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff set to play in front of the Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd.

Sabalenka vs. Pegula is one of the most familiar matchups in tennis. They have faced each other 13 times, including in each of the past two seasons at the U.S. Open. Rybakina and Gauff, on the other hand, will be squaring off for just the third time.

Let’s take a look at two of the best bets to make.

U.S. Open Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula best bet: Over 10.5 total aces (+105)

The key to exceeding this number is for the match to be a long one. The longer it goes, of course, the more opportunities each woman will have to hit aces. And that’s what should be the case. Each of the last four meetings between Sabalenka and Pegula has gone three sets. Their last seven encounters have all lasted at least 20 games, including five with 24 games or more. Sabalenka won 7-5, 7-5 in the 2024 U.S. Open final before overcoming Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in last year’s semis.

The world No. 1 has cracked 32 aces through five rounds of this tournament. That’s almost seven per match and 0.63 per service game. Pegula fired 25 aces in her first five matches, good for an average of five per match and 0.48 per service game. It is also important to factor in the return game, and neither woman does a good job of getting a racket on serves. Sabalenka is getting aced on 6.5 percent of her return points over the last 52 weeks, fourth worst among players ranked in the top 50. Pegula comes in at 5.1 percent in that department (eighth worst in the top 50).

U.S. Open Elena Rybakina vs. Coco Gauff best bet: Gauff ML (-118)

Gauff won the U.S. Open in 2023 and is back in the semifinals for the first time since that success. There is no reason why she can’t win it again. The 22-year-old is absolutely rolling right now to the tune of a 10-match winning streak. It includes a title in Cincinnati, where she defeated the likes of Pegula and Marta Kostyuk. Gauff has since won 10 of 11 sets through five rounds at Flushing Meadows, dropping only one to reigning French Open champion Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals. Of the 10 sets the American has won, only one has been more competitive than 6-4.

The jury is out to a greater extent on Rybakina’s current form. There is no doubt that the Kazakh is playing well, but is her level good enough to defeat Gauff? Maybe not. Rybakina retired from a match in Cincinnati due to an ankle injury and was a serious question mark heading into New York. The No. 2 seed has impressed through five matches, but she has not been seriously tested. Her first three opponents were ranked No. 585, No. 105 and No. 58, after which Naomi Osaka was injured in the fourth round and qualifier Qinwen Zheng was her quarterfinal foe. Rybakina also needed three sets on Wednesday, so both players in this contest are coming off a tough match. It’s also worth noting that Rybakina clinched the No. 1 ranking for the first time by reaching the U.S. Open semis. It would only be natural for any player to suffer a bit of a letdown following such a big career moment.