2026 U.S. Open Men’s Semifinal Betting Odds: Tiafoe vs. Shelton; Zverev vs. Khachanov

The U.S. Open is down to four men, and for the first time since 2003, an American champion remains a realistic possibility.

Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe meet in an all-American semifinal after both survived five-set quarterfinal thrillers, guaranteeing a home player in Sunday’s final. On the other side, top seed Alexander Zverev continues his pursuit of a second major title against Karen Khachanov.

With Carlos Alcaraz eliminated and Jannik Sinner absent, the championship picture is suddenly wide open.

Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of U.S. Open match odds and U.S. Open futures.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton: Set Betting – Ben Shelton 3-2 (+450)

Shelton enters off the biggest victory of his career after defeating seven-time Grand Slam champion and defending U.S. Open champion Carlos Alcaraz in five sets. But if you believe he will simply cruise past Tiafoe, you should pause, take a step back and reassess.

These two are close friends off the court and know each other well on the court. Shelton leads the tour-level series 3-1, but Tiafoe’s lone victory came in exactly this setting, beating Shelton in five sets at the 2024 U.S. Open.

Tiafoe also arrives battle-tested after coming back from two sets down against Alex Michelsen. He has now reached three U.S. Open semifinals and consistently raises his level in New York.

Still, Shelton owns the higher ceiling. His serve has become more reliable, his baseline defence has improved, and his title in Montreal showed he can string together elite performances.

This has all the ingredients of another long Arthur Ashe Stadium battle. I’ll take Shelton to survive it in five in another instant classic.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton: Match Total Games Over 39.5 (-110)

The Over pairs naturally with the five-set Shelton prediction. Shelton can reach 150 mph with his first serve, while Tiafoe possesses enough variety and first-strike power to keep his own service games moving quickly.

Their previous Grand Slam meetings also suggest there should be very little separation. Shelton beat Tiafoe in four sets at the 2023 U.S. Open, while Tiafoe answered with a five-set win one year later.

Both players also arrive carrying major confidence. Shelton has already won Montreal this summer and just knocked out Alcaraz, while Tiafoe reached the Cincinnati final before making another deep run in New York.

Even four competitive sets could threaten this number, and a fifth would make the Over extremely live.

With both Americans comfortable under the lights and neither afraid of pressure, expect lengthy sets, at least one tiebreak and plenty of games.

Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov: Set Betting — Zverev 3-1 (+240)

Zverev has become more efficient after opening the tournament shaky with consecutive five-set matches.

He has now won three straight in straight sets, including a comfortable quarterfinal victory over Botic van de Zandschulp, despite an uncharacteristic number of double faults, and enters as the clear favourite against Khachanov.

The German leads their career series 6-3 and has won four of the last five meetings, although Khachanov did beat him in Canada last year.

Khachanov is experienced enough to steal a set with his serve and forehand, but Zverev has been the steadier player throughout the majors this season.

Expect Khachanov to push him briefly before Zverev’s serving and consistency take over.