New York City FC vs. Toronto FC MLS preview and prediction
The FIFA World Cup has been the main soccer event in North America this summer, but the MLS is back in action as of last week. Friday night presents us with a great match between New York City FC and Toronto FC.
While NYCFC sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and have rattled off back-to-back wins after the break, Toronto have struggled. The visitors are 12th in the East, losing and drawing one since returning to action. Toronto are now winless since April 4, and I can’t see things turning around in New York City.
There is still plenty to break down in my New York City FC vs. Toronto FC preview and prediction, so let’s get into it.
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC MLS Odds and Betting Trends
NYCFC are -160 home favourites on the three-way moneyline, the draw has +295 odds and Toronto are +380 road underdogs. The over/under is 2.5, with the over being slightly favoured at -135 and the under coming back at +110.
Nicolas Fernandez Mercau is the main man for the hosts, scoring 12 goals in 17 games, and is tied with Lionel Messi for the third-most goals in the MLS. He is +135 to score against Toronto.
New York City FC
The hosts come into this match hot out of the gates since the MLS returned to play after the World Cup. They began by taking down the Columbus Crew 2-1 on the road before dismantling the Chicago Fire 3-1 at home. Mercau started the scoring in both contests, and the Argentinian forward has now scored in three consecutive matches for NYCFC. Two of those goals came from the penalty spot, but he’s still tallied eight shots and five on target in his previous three contests.
NYCFC have played fairly down the middle this season, scoring 30 goals in 17 contests while allowing 23. They are 4-2-3 at home this season, and their three defeats came against Inter Miami, Charlotte FC and D.C. United, who are all in the playoff hunt. Toronto FC don’t fit this category, so the hosts should take care of business in this match.
Toronto FC
The visitors are in free fall, and I can’t see it ending on Friday night. Daniel Salloi leads the team with four goals and three assists, but he’s yet to record a goal involvement since the break. That is where the real issue lies with this Toronto team; they do not have a true goal threat. Josh Sargent was expected to be their target man, but the 26-year-old had a thigh injury in May and didn’t feature in the squad in their 2-1 defeat to D.C. United.
Toronto have allowed a modest 31 goals in 17 matches, which isn’t great, but they’ve only scored 23 goals in that span. You’re not going to win games when you’re averaging just over a goal per contest. During their 11-game winless streak in the MLS, they scored more than one goal just three times. If this streak continues on Friday, I expect the winless streak to continue.
MLS Prediction: Who Will Win New York City FC vs. Toronto FC?
Best bet: New York City ML and Over 1.5 goals (-110)
The hosts are trending in the right direction and have completely dominated this matchup in recent history. NYCFC have won five consecutive MLS meetings against Toronto, and those wins have averaged 3.2 goals. Only one victory ended 1-0, and NYCFC has just one 1-0 win this season. Expect at least two goals while the hosts coast to three more points.
Final score prediction: New York City FC 2 | Toronto FC 0