Barcelona vs. Villarreal La Liga Preview and Prediction

This weekend finds two of the top three teams in the Spanish La Liga, FC Barcelona and Villarreal CF, facing off in a points-hungry showdown, as Barca leads La Liga with just one point. Villareal could firmly grasp a top-four finish with a win or draw, but it’s Barcelona that will absolutely need the three points if they want to win the league trophy for the second year in a row.

Barcelona vs. Villarreal La Liga Odds and Betting Trends

Barcelona has shown historical dominance with 35 wins in 57 matches in this fixture, winning the last match they played in December, 2-0. Additionally, Barcelona has won this fixture three times out of the last five meetings, and the two squads have combined for 28 goals in their last five meetings, leading to a high tally of nearly six goals per game.

Barcelona are major favourites to win the 2025/26 La Liga season at a -180 price, and if they hold off on further blunders, they could easily run away with the title, although they still have to play Real and Atletico Madrid one more time. The Catalans are -325 home favourites at the Nou Camp in this one, as Villareal comes down as +650 contenders, with a draw priced at +525 and the Over 3.5 more than probable at -140 on the La Liga odds.

Villarreal

Villareal is showcasing a warrior mentality this season at third place in the league, sitting ahead of Atletico by three points. Their sole focus is now on La Liga, considering they were knocked out of both the Champions League and Copa del Rey this year, allowing them to achieve an impressive goal differential of +20. Since their return to La Liga from the UCL, they’ve gone 3-1-1, mostly against mid-table teams, but Barcelona will be their hardest test since their 2-0 loss to Madrid on January 24.

The Yellow Submarine squad boasts goal-scoring variety, particularly among four separate players with five goals or more, led by Alberto Moleiro with nine. Georges Mikautadze has three in his last four matchups for eight total this season, followed by Gerard Morena with seven so far. Villareal takes pride in their third-highest goal tally in La Liga (47) this season, but lacks a strong enough defence to keep out goals, allowing even more than Barcelona this season, with 27.

Barcelona

The Catalans regained control of La Liga after a convincing 3-0 victory over Levante, and Real Madrid’s slip-up last weekend. Barcelona is only second in most goals scored (67) in all of Europe’s major leagues to Bayern Munich, with the team’s only true weakness being their exploitable high line, which has allowed 25 goals in the league this season. They experienced two consecutive losses, one to Atletico in the Copa del Rey and then Girona in the league, but have since gotten back on track.

Never count out Barcelona, even at a deficit, as Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Lewandowski, Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo, and Fermin Lopez always deal damage to the opposition, with 51 goals recorded between the six players. Frenkie de Jong has been a pivotal player in controlling the midfield in Pedri’s absence, which, if the Spaniard returns for this weekend’s matchup (likely), will completely allow Barcelona to dominate in possession.

La Liga Prediction: Who Will Win Barcelona vs. Villarreal?

Villareal will be a true challenge for the Catalanas, but hardly anything other than a bump in the road. Barcelona must eliminate dropping points any further to take the title, which means all wins from here, and with their experienced and vigorous personnel, depth of squad, and goal scoring ability, it shouldn’t matter how many goals they allow, because they thrive in tearing open their opponents’ net.

Pedri’s potential return should make a world of difference, and with Raphinha now getting back in shape, the Catalans have no excuse to lose or draw this one. They will most certainly allow a goal or two with their risky high back line, but I have faith they’ll come out on top at Nou Camp. Bank on a 3-1 Barcelona win, and definitely the Over 3.5, given this matchup’s history.