2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball odds and prediction for Player of the Tournament
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be here before you know it, and there is plenty to break down before the tournament kicks off on Thursday, June 11.
Although every player’s dream is winning a World Cup, taking home a Golden Ball wouldn’t be too bad either. The Golden Ball is given to the best player of the tournament, and although you’d expect it to go to a player from the winning team, that hasn’t been the case lately.
In Qatar 2022, Lionel Messi was the first player to win the Golden Ball and World Cup since Romario did so with Brazil in 1994, so it will be interesting to see if that trend can continue this year.
Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of World Cup game odds and World Cup futures.
2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball odds
Here are the 10 players with the shortest odds of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball at Sports Interaction:
- Harry Kane (+750)
- Lamine Yamal (+800)
- Kylian Mbappe (+900)
- Michael Olise (+1000)
- Lionel Messi (+1200)
- Declan Rice (+1600)
- Vinicius Junior (+1600)
- Bruno Fernandes (+1800)
- Raphinha (+2000)
- Pedri (+2000)
Interestingly, there isn’t a single defender listed, and Declan Rice, Bruno Fernandes, and Pedri are the only midfielders in the top 10. Here is a list of the previous Golden Boot winners with their position and the tournament champion in bold:
- 1930: CB José Nasazzi (Uruguay) → Uruguay
- 1934: ST Giuseppe Meazza (Italy) → Italy
- 1938: ST Leônidas (Brazil) → Italy
- 1950: CAM Zizinho (Brazil) → Uruguay
- 1954: ST Ferenc Puskás (Hungary) → West Germany
- 1958: CM Didi (Brazil) → Brazil
- 1962: LW Garrincha (Brazil) → Brazil
- 1966: ST Bobby Charlton (England) → England
- 1970: ST Pelé (Brazil) → Brazil
- 1974: ST Johan Cruyff (Netherlands) → West Germany
- 1978: ST Mario Kempes (Argentina) → Argentina
- 1982: ST Paolo Rossi (Italy) → Italy
- 1986: ST Diego Maradona (Argentina) → Argentina
- 1990: ST Salvatore Schillaci (Italy) → Germany
- 1994: ST Romario (Brazil) → Brazil
- 1998: ST Ronaldo (Brazil) → France
- 2002: GK Oliver Kahn (Germany) → Brazil
- 2006: CM Zinedine Zidane (France) → Italy
- 2010: ST Diego Forlan (Uruguay) → Spain
- 2014: RW Lionel Messi (Argentina) → Germany
- 2018: CM Luka Modric (Croatia) → France
- 2022: RW Lionel Messi (Argentina) → Argentina
As you can see, the award is most often given to an attacking player, as a forward has won the Golden Ball 16 out of the 22 World Cups. Oliver Kahn is the only goalie, and José Nasazzi is the only defender to take home the award, but that came back in the inaugural World Cup.
2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball best bet: Lamine Yamal (+800)
I love Lamine Yamal’s chances of winning the Golden Ball, as the 18-year-old should improve from his 2022 Euros performance, which saw him take home the Young Player of the Tournament. The Barcelona man is the main threat in a Spanish side that carries the shortest odds (+100) of making the semifinal. Their first two games of the tournament come against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia as well, and Yamal should be able to stuff the stat sheet. Although he carries the second-shortest odds of winning, there is still value in taking Lamine Yamal to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball.
2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball prediction: Bruno Fernandes (+1800)
I’m going with Portugal’s Bruno Fernandes for my second Golden Ball prediction, as the Manchester United midfielder is coming off a fantastic season where he set the English Premier League single-season assist record. You don’t always need goals and assists to win this award, as Luka Modric took it home with two goals and an assist, but Bruno can easily lead this tournament in assists. He’ll be feeding a front line consisting of Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Leão, Gonçalo Ramos, Pedro Neto, and more. Fernandes will be this team’s playmaker, which is why I’m betting him to win the Golden Ball at 18-1.
2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball long shot pick: Federico Valverde (+6500)
Long shot picks won’t hit very often, but there is too much value on Uruguay’s Federico Valverde to win this award. Uruguay is a squad that possesses talent from top to bottom, and I expect them to surprise many fans at this World Cup. If they make a deep run, it will be because Valverde is creating and putting away chances, as the Real Madrid man has shown his ability when he plays at his best. The price just doesn’t make sense to me, so I’ll gladly take a nibble on the Uruguayan to take home the award for the first time since 1930.