Toronto Maple Leafs 2025/26 Season Preview: Life After Marner Begins

Can the Leafs stay in the contender mix without Mitch Marner?

Leafs’ Last Season Stats

Record: 52–26–4 (108 points)
Result: Lost in Second Round of Eastern Conference Playoffs
2025–26 Stanley Cup Odds: +1600 at Sports Interaction
Projected Points: 99.6

Maple Leafs Offseason Recap

The Leafs’ summer was defined by one story: life after Mitch Marner.

Toronto traded the star winger to Vegas after another disappointing playoff run, leaving a 102-point hole to fill. GM Brad Treliving brought in forwards Matias Maccelli, Dakota Joshua, and Nicolas Roy, all of whom fit new coach Craig Berube’s physical, north-south system that tightened Toronto’s defensive play last season.

The Leafs also added defenceman Brandon Carlo and veteran James Reimer (PTO) for depth, while Anthony Stolarz returns as the expected No. 1 goalie after posting a .926 save percentage in 2024–25.

Maple Leafs 2025/26 Team Outlook

Offence: The Matthews Era, No Marner Required

Toronto’s offence still revolves around Auston Matthews, who looks fully healthy after a 33-goal season cut short by injuries. The expectation: another 50+ goal campaign. William Nylander remains an elite scorer after his career-best 45 goals, while John Tavares continues to age gracefully as a dependable second-line centre.

The new-look top six will experiment early. Maccelli has a chance to rediscover his 2023–24 form (57 points) alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies, who’s emerging as a legitimate power forward. Max Domi provides secondary playmaking, and Nicolas Roy stabilizes the third line with defensive reliability.

Without Marner’s passing wizardry, Toronto will rely on a committee approach, and more puck possession from its star trio, to sustain its scoring pace.

Defence: A Strength at Last

Berube’s defensive system was the Leafs’ biggest success last year. Toronto allowed 229 goals, tied for eighth fewest in the NHL, which is 32 fewer than the year prior.

The top four of Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev and Morgan Rielly–Brandon Carlo gives the Leafs balance they’ve lacked for years. Tanev’s elite defensive metrics (plus-5.9 Defensive Rating) complement McCabe’s physicality, while Carlo’s stay-at-home style could unlock Rielly’s puck-moving game again.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Simon Benoit round out a steady third pair. Offence from the blue line remains limited, but the defensive core now fits Berube’s identity.

Goaltending: Can Stolarz Handle the Load?

Anthony Stolarz was one of the NHL’s top goalies last season (.926 SV%, 31.2 GSAx), but he’s entering uncharted territory as a true No. 1. With Joseph Woll on indefinite personal leave, Dennis Hildeby and James Reimer will compete for the backup role.

If Stolarz stays healthy, something that hasn’t always been guaranteed, Toronto’s defensive ceiling remains high. If not, the margin for error disappears fast.

Toronto’s X-Factors

Matias Maccelli: Bounce-back candidate with top-six upside and a strong playmaking pedigree.

Matthew Knies: Developing into a physical, net-front scorer; Berube’s kind of player.

Craig Berube: In his second season, the coach’s no-nonsense system gives Toronto a clearer identity than it’s had in years.

Auston Matthews: Needs a full, dominant season to carry this roster back into contender status.

Maple Leafs 2025/26 Betting Outlook

Sports Interaction’s NHL Futures board lists Toronto at:

+1600 to win the Stanley Cup

–375 to make the playoffs

Matthews’ Rocket Richard odds are +325. A 60-goal bounce-back would keep him in both the Hart and Richard Trophy conversations.

Best Bet: Matthews Over 47.5 Goals
He’s healthy, motivated, and will see massive volume without Marner.

So, What’s the Final Verdict?

Toronto is still one of the NHL’s most talented teams, but replacing Marner’s creativity by committee is easier said than done. The Leafs will win plenty, especially if Stolarz holds steady, yet they may lack the high-end depth of true Cup favourites.

Prediction: 101 points, 2nd in the Atlantic Division, playoff berth
Bottom Line: The Leafs remain dangerous but vulnerable. Health and goaltending will decide whether “Pressure is a privilege” finally turns into progress.