Stars vs. Oilers Game 3 Prediction: Stanley Cup Playoff Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated May 26, 2024

NHL: Stanley Cup Playoffs-Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars

With the Stars and Oilers splitting the first two games of the Western Conference Final, the series is sitting at nearly a pick'em as the teams head to Edmonton for Game 3 on Monday night.

Dallas
52-21-7-2
AT
May 27, 2024, 8:30 PM ET
Rogers Place
Edmonton
49-27-5-1
Puckline +1.5 -250
Moneyline +105
Over / Under o +5.5

0%

Betting Action

38%

Puckline -1.5 +195
Moneyline -125
Over / Under u +5.5

0%

Betting Action

38%

The Oilers won an incredibly tight Game 1 in double overtime and looked in control again early in Game 2, but Dallas battled back to win 3-1 and even the series at one win apiece. Can the Stars reclaim home ice advantage with a win in Game 3, or will Edmonton grab their second series lead of the Western Conference Final?

After opening the first two games as small underdogs, the Oilers are -125 favourites to win Game 3 on the NHL odds, with the total sitting at 5.5.

Stars vs. Oilers NHL Betting Odds

Despite the amount of offensive star power on both teams, tight defensive hockey has been key in five total meetings between Edmonton and Dallas through the regular season and playoffs. Only one of those five games has been decided by more than two goals and the last three finished with a combined total of five or less goals.

The Stars entered the series as a slim favourite to win and the line shifted to favour the Oilers ahead of Game 2. That movement continues in Game 3 as the series is essentially a pick’em, with Dallas at -115 and Edmonton at -105. Oddsmakers are clearly still trying to figure these teams out as the favoured exact series result is a tie between the Stars winning in seven games and Oilers winning in six, at +350 each. The biggest long shot is a Dallas win in five games at +600.

With how tight the first two games of this series have been, it’s a little surprising to see that the series going Over 6.5 games is priced at +145. This looks bound to go the distance, so getting plus-money on the series lasting seven games seems like a great bargain and I would argue that’s currently your best value play on the NHL futures board.

Dallas Stars

Dallas survived a terrible first period in which they were outshot 16-4 in Game 2 and turned it up the rest of the way, outshooting Edmonton 21-13 over the last two periods. Captain Jamie Benn, Mason Marchment and Esa Lindell scored for the Stars, while Miro Heiskanen added an assist to his team-leading 14 points (5G, 9A) in the playoffs. Jake Oettinger‘s 28-save performance improved him to 9-6 in the playoffs with a 2.04 goals-against average and .922 save percentage. Oettinger was my pre-playoffs Conn Smythe pick and that hasn’t changed as we pass the halfway point of the postseason.

The Stars are much more of a score-by-committee team than Edmonton. While the Oilers boast the top four leading scorers of the playoffs, Dallas’ leading scorer, Hesikanen, is 10th in playoff scoring. Wyatt Johnston has a team-high seven goals and the Stars have seven players who have scored three or more goals in the postseason this year. One player who could make a major difference is top line centre Roope Hintz, who remains a game-time decision as he deals with what is believed to be a hand or wrist injury. It looked like Hintz was close to returning in Game 2, so it seems like there’s a good chance he plays in Game 3.

Edmonton Oilers

Connor Brown tied Game 2 early in the first period, but it was all the offence Edmonton managed on the night. Stuart Skinner made 22 saves in net. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman were held pointless in Game 2 after they each scored in Game 1. Draisaitl leads the playoffs with 25 points, McDavid is second with 23 and Hyman has a postseason-high 12 goals, so all three players obviously need to be better in Game 3. It was actually the first game this postseason that Draisaitl has been held without a point.

One reason for the lack of offensive production in Game 2 could be the Oilers’ stagnant power play. Edmonton still ranks second in the postseason with a 34.6 per cent success rate on the man advantage, but they haven’t managed to capitalize on three power play opportunities in this series. Going back to Game 5 of the second round, the Oilers are just 1-for-13 (7.7 per cent) on the power play.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Stars vs. Oilers Game 3?

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