UFC 324 Odds, Prediction: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
After more than a month-long break, the UFC is finally back. The action resumes with UFC 324 this weekend, which will feature several fantastic fights to kick off the first UFC event of the year.
In fact, a total of 13 fights are set for UFC 324, highlighted by a main event bout between the fourth-ranked Justin Gaethje and the fifth-ranked Paddy Pimblett for the UFC interim lightweight title.
Further, with this being a fight for the Interim lightweight title, the winner is sure to get his shot at the lightweight title later this year.
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds and Betting Trends
When looking at the MMA betting odds for this interim lightweight title fight, we can see that Pimblett is the overwhelming favourite with moneyline odds of -235. This means that Gaethje is a significant underdog, coming back at odds of +190.
Oddsmakers don’t expect this fight to go to the judges, as they are offering a juicy +240 price on the fight to go the distance. If you want to invest in the fight ending inside the distance, you will have to lay a heavy -350 price.
Breaking the odds down further, submission is the preferred method of victory at +125, while Pimblett is favoured for an inside-the-distance finish at -150.
Justin Gaethje
Gaethje comes into UFC 324 with an MMA record of 26-5. All five of those losses came in UFC fights, along with nine of the 26 wins. His most recent fight ended with a win by unanimous decision against Rafael Fiziev back in March 2025.
Throughout his career, Gaethje has been known for his striking ability. He averages 6.59 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 58 per cent. Because of that, Gaethje has also been known to absorb a ton of damage, to the tune of 7.18 strikes per minute.
However, he is not known for his grappling, averaging just 0.14 takedowns every 15 minutes.
Paddy Pimblett
Pimblett boasts an MMA record of 23-3, including a perfect 7-0 in the UFC. His most recent fight was a win against Michael Chandler back in April 2025 by KO/TKO.
Like Gaethje, Pimblett is known for his striking ability, averaging 5.19 significant strikes per minute. The main difference is that he absorbs much less damage, just 3.14 strikes per minute. He is also a known grappler, averaging 0.96 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.7 submission attempts during the same period. That being said, Pimblett only has a takedown accuracy of 28 per cent.
UFC 324 Prediction: Who Will Win Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett?
Even with Pimblett set as the favourite, there is plenty of reason to like him in this fight. For one, Pimblett has never lost in the UFC. He has already beaten some fierce competition, so even though Gaethje is likely his toughest test yet, he has proven he can stand up and strike with anyone.
There is also the fact that Gaethje has seemed to slow down recently, as he is a mediocre 4-3 across his last seven UFC fights. We do know that Gaethje has the higher striking volume, but with Pimblett’s grappling and better defence, my pick is Pimblett ML (-235).
