NHL Odds: Connor McDavid or the field for the Hart Trophy?
Connor McDavid
Connor McDavid played at a historic pace in 2022-23, finishing the year with 64 goals and 153 points. It was the most goals scored in a season since Alex Ovechkin netted 65 in 2007-08 and the highest point total since Mario Lemieux scored 160 in 1992-93. The career-year earned him several end-of-year honours, including the Hart, Art Ross, Rocket Richard and Ted Lindsay trophies.
So, can McDavid do it all again this season? Well, the 26-year-old is in the prime of his career and he’s only missed two games over the last three seasons. His points per game and goals per game averages continue to improve every year, so as ridiculous as it sounds, it’s fair to assume he las a legitimate shot at 70 goals and 170 points. Even if he doesn’t hit those wild numbers, it’s hard to argue against him winning the Hart Trophy if he has 10 more goals and 30 more points than the next closest player.
McDavid’s biggest obstacle will be voter fatigue. Including last year, he’s won the Hart three times and it’s important to remember that since Wayne Gretzky’s run in the 1980’s, only two players have won back-to-back Harts, Ovechkin in 2007-08 and 2008-09 and Dominik Hasek in 1996-97 and 1997-98.
Nathan MacKinnon
Nathan MacKinnon is the driving force behind the Colorado Avalanche and he’s coming off the best season of his career. The 28-year-old finished with 111 points and 42 goals last season, with more of the offensive load shifted to his shoulders in the absence of Gabriel Landeskog. With Landeskog set to miss a second season, MacKinnon will again be relied upon to help carry the offence.
MacKinnon has finished in the top-five of Hart voting four times in the last six years. He’s finished runner-up in Hart voting twice and was fifth last season. Over the second half of last season, MacKinnon had 77 points in 47 games, which is a 130-point pace. MacKinnon should be a lock for a Hart nomination if he can sustain that production from last season and Colorado dominates the NHL the way they did in their 2021-22 Stanley Cup winning season.
Leon Draisaitl
Often called the Robin to Connor McDavid’s Batman, Leon Draisaitl is one of the best hockey players on the planet and he doesn’t play second fiddle to anyone. He scored 128 points and 52 goals last season, which is actually 18 more points and nine more goals than when he won the Hart in 2020.
Since 2018-19, Draisaitl’s 537 points is second only to McDavid and over the last three seasons, he has just three fewer goals than No. 97. Perhaps even more impressive, over the last three years Draisaitl has almost 60 more points than Nathan MacKinnon, the closest non-Oiler to Draisaitl.
Draisaitl has already proven he can beat out McDavid for the Hart Trophy, so why can’t he do it again?
Matthew Tkachuk
Matthew Tkachuk is the definition of a player you hate to play against, but would love to have on your team. He set a new career-high in points last season with 109 and his 40 goals was two short of his career-best. He almost single-handedly dragged Florida to the Stanley Cup Final and he’s still just 25-years-old.
Tkachuk is a Hart candidate solely from an offensive perspective, but what gives him real value is his all-around ability. It seems like when he’s on the ice, he’s as likely to throw a big hit or start a fight as he is likely to score a goal or make a great pass. He is capable of thriving in any situation or style of play.
Tkachuk gets under opponents skin and he has a knack for scoring big goals in big moments. He finished third in Hart voting last year and purely from his unique style of play it would be surprising if he isn’t in the Hart conversation again in 2023-24.
Hart Trophy Value Bets
Cale Makar
From his first game in the NHL, Cale Makar has produced. He is arguably the best defenceman in the NHL and at 24-years-old, he has already won the Calder, Norris, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup. Makar scores at over a point-per-game pace while continuing to be an elite defender, which is something Hart voters will weigh heavily in his favour.
Tage Thompson
Tage Thompson broke out in a big way last season, setting new career-highs with 94 points and 47 goals. His combination of size, elite stickhandling and powerful shot make him one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the NHL, so there’s a real chance he has an even better season in 2023-24. If Thompson drags Buffalo to the playoffs, he could earn himself a Hart nomination.
Sebastian Aho
Sebastian Aho is a lock for 30-plus goals and he’s playing on a Hurricanes team that is expected to make a lot of noise this season. He’s never dealt with any serious injury issues and at 26-years-old, he still has a lot of prime years left. Aho can make his case for the Hart if he leads Carolina in scoring and they run away with the Metropolitan Division.
