Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens Game 6 Prediction, Playoff Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated May 28, 2021

Nick Suzuki was the overtime hero in Game 5, burying the game-winner 59 seconds into the extra period.

Toronto
35-14-7
AT
May 29, 2021, 7:30 PM ET
Bell Centre
Montreal
24-21-8-3
Puckline -1.5 +125
Moneyline -213
Over / Under o +5.5

64%

Betting Action

36%

Puckline +1.5 -150
Moneyline +177
Over / Under u +5.5

64%

Betting Action

36%

It’s way too early to say this series has changed after Montreal’s 4-3 overtime win on Thursday, but you’ve got to think with Toronto’s playoff history over the last few years, there were at least a few Leafs fans having flashbacks of Brad Marchand and the Boston Bruins.  The series now shifts to the Bell Centre for Game 6 on Sunday.  This will be the first Canadian NHL game in over a year to have at least limited fans in the building.  With Toronto leading 3-2 in the best-of-seven, can the Leafs win their first playoff series since 2004, or do the Habs have what it takes to force a Game 7?

Toronto is a -186 favourite to win on the NHL odds with a total of 5.5.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Stanley Cup Odds

Montreal has proven to be a tougher opponent than most people gave them credit for heading into this series.  The early action is showing that change in perception as early on, Game 6 is shaping up to be the closest betting margin of the series with about 60 per cent of bettors taking the Leafs.  There’s more consensus on the total, which is getting about 80 per cent of the action on the Over.  The Over has hit twice in this series, including Game 5 in Toronto.

Toronto dropped to 5-2 straight up in their last seven games against the Canadiens, but they’re still the favourites to win the North Division at -197.  They also have the second-best odds to win the Stanley Cup at +464.

Thursday’s win broke a four-game home losing streak for the Habs, but it’s important to remember the last week or so of regular season games didn’t matter in the standings and Montreal has put together a much better effort in the playoffs.  Of the three Canadian teams left, their odds to win the North are the worst at +1000.  They also have the worst odds to win the Stanley Cup of all the teams left in the playoffs at +3900.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Despite a third period comeback spearheaded by Jake Muzzin‘s two goals in 5:02, the Leafs failed to close out the series on Thursday.  After trailing 3-0 in the second period, Zach Hyman‘s first goal of the playoffs lit a fire under Toronto and the Leafs would go on to outshoot Montreal 16-6 in the third period and send the game to overtime.  Jack Campbell made 26 saves in the loss, but after letting a few bad goals in on Thursday, there’s already a little chatter wondering if he can handle the playoff pressure.  It goes to show, Campbell clearly doesn’t have a long leash and with Frederik Andersen waiting in the wings, another bad game could lead to a goalie controversy.

William Nylander‘s four-game goal streak ended in Game 5, which shines a little more spotlight on Toronto’s struggling offence.  Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have combined to score just one goal in the series, but it’s important to recognize how well they’re playing defensively.  The top line of Matthews, Marner and Hyman haven’t been scored on at any point in this series.  They’re also continuing to generate offensive chances.  Matthews leads the Leafs with 25 shots in the series, followed by Hyman (16), Nylander (15) and Marner (14).  Long story short, don’t panic yet Leafs fans, at least you’re not playing Boston.

Montreal Canadiens

After the Habs blew a 3-0 lead, Nick Suzuki bailed out the team and scored 59 seconds into overtime to send the series back to Montreal for Game 6.  Suzuki finished a one-timer on a 2-on-0 rush with Cole Caufield, which was actually Caufield’s first career NHL playoff point.  Joel Armia scored his first two goals of the playoffs in the first period, while Jesperi Kotkaniemi added a second period tally.  Carey Price made 32 saves in the win and continues to look sharp.

Montreal is clearly putting a bigger focus on youth as this series moves on.  Kotkaniemi was a healthy scratch for Game 1 and Caufield was scratched in Game 1 and Game 2.  At this point, neither player should draw out of the lineup.  Like Toronto, the Canadiens haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard.  They’ve got eight goals in the series, with Armia, Suzuki and Kotkaniemi accounting for six of those goals.  Tyler Toffoli, who led the team in goals (28) and points (44) during the regular season has failed to find the back of the net through five playoff games.

NHL Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens?

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