Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Game 7 Prediction: Stanley Cup Playoffs Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated May 03, 2024

NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins

The Toronto Maple Leafs have fought back from a 3-1 series deficit against the Bruins to force a Game 7 in Boson on Saturday night.

Toronto
46-26-8-2
AT
May 04, 2024, 8:00 PM ET
TD Garden
Boston
47-20-12-3
Puckline +1.5 -250
Moneyline +115
Over / Under o +5

41%

Betting Action

59%

Puckline -1.5 +200
Moneyline -135
Over / Under u +5

41%

Betting Action

59%

After being thoroughly outmatched in three of the the first four games of this series, the Leafs crawled back with back-to-back 2-1 victories. William Nylander was the hero in Game 6 on Thursday, scoring both goals to set up yet another Game 7 winner-take-all matchup between Toronto and Boston.

The Bruins opened as -145 favourites to win on the NHL odds, with the total set at 5.5.

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins NHL Betting Odds

This is an incredibly famaliar situation for these teams as it will be the fourth time since 2013 that they have met in a first round series that has gone seven games. Boston won all three of those deciding games and blew 3-1 leads in two of those series’. There’s been a clear trend in this year’s matchup as the total has exceeded five goals just twice and the Under has cashed in three straight games.

Let’s do a bit of revisionist history. The series line opened as a virtual pick’em prior to Game 1 before the Bruins jumped out to a 3-1 lead and grew to massive -1200 favourites heading into Game 5. You remember the lead up to Game 5, right? That’s when I got on my high horse and essentially said you would be crazy to think Toronto could win the series. Here’s my humble quote:

“Or, if you want to throw your money away you could take Toronto to win in seven games at +700. No judgement here, delusion Leafs fans.”

You can’t win em’ all, but that looks particularly bad. For the novice bettors out there, a winning $100 wager on the Leafs at +700 odds would have netted $700 profit. My bad. Don’t let anyone say I don’t hold myself accountable. But hey, Toronto still has to win for me to completely lose my credibility and if there’s one thing I love to do, it’s bet against the Leafs.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto came out fast and heavy in Game 6 as they outshot the Bruins 12-1 in the first period alone. Nylander didn’t break the scoreless tie, however, until the last minute of the second period and he added the eventual winning goal with just over three minutes left in the game. The 28-year-old Swede has been a constant playoff performer, scoring 16 times in 33 postseason games since 2020. That’s a team-high in that span and four more goals than Auston Matthews has scored. Joseph Woll had his shutout bid ruined in the last second of Game 6, but he still managed to make 22 saves to become the first goalie in NHL history to have his first three playoff wins come in elimination games.

The NHL’s leading goal scorer during the regular season, Matthews, missed his second straight game on Thursday and there’s a belief he’s unlikely to return for Game 7, though it will likely be a game-time decision. Matthews, who scored the winning goal in Boston in Game 2, is dealing with an unknown injury. That puts more pressure on a player like Mitch Marner, who clearly needs to step up after recording just three points (1G, 2A) through the first six games of this series.

Boston Bruins

Slow starts are becoming a major concern for the Bruins as they been outshot 23-3 by Toronto over the the first periods of Games 5 and 6. Morgan Geekie was the only player who found the back of the net for Boston on Thursday, but it was much too late to make any difference. Jeremy Swayman wasn’t the issue, however, as he stopped 24 of 26 shots faced and he has a 1.60 goals-against average and .947 save percentage in the series. The Bruins are now in danger of losing a first round series in which they led 3-1 for the second straight year. It’s also fair to question their killer instinct as they have lost six straight series clinching games.

Brad Marchand leads Boston with eight points (3G, 5A), but he’s been held off the scoresheet in the last two games. The bigger concern is sniper David Pastrnak, who has just two goals in the series after scoring 47 times in the regular season. The Bruins need to use their special teams advantages in Game 7. Boston’s power play didn’t score on their only Game 6 opportunity, but they were 6-for-14 in the series entering Thursday. The team has also held Toronto’s power play to just 1-for-20.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Game 7?

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