Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders Game 6 Prediction, Playoff Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jun 22, 2021

After a blowout loss in Game 5, the Islanders will try to pick up the pieces as they face a win-or-go-home game against Tampa on Wednesday.

Tampa Bay
June 23, 2021, 8:00 PM ET
Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
NY Islanders
Puckline -1.5 +165
Moneyline -159
Over / Under o +5


Betting Action


Puckline +1.5 -198
Moneyline +132
Over / Under u +5


Betting Action


It’s safe to say that very few people could have predicted just how bad Game 5 of this semifinal series would go for the New York Islanders.  An 8-0 pounding from the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday has put the Isles on the ropes, as they head back to Long Island for Game 6, trailing the best-of-7 series 3-2.

Tampa is a -156 road favourite to win on the NHL odds, with a total of 5.0.

Lightning vs. Islanders Stanley Cup Odds

Sports Interaction bettors smell blood in the water, with 74 per cent of the action siding with the Bolts to end the series in Game 6.  After the eight-goal total in Game 5, the Over is also getting a majority of the action.  There’s been two Overs, two Unders and one push in the series.

The Lightning’s offensive explosion in Game 5 was out of the norm in these playoffs, as the total has gone Under in eight of their last 12 games overall and six of their last seven on the road.  Tampa is now 8-4 straight up in their last 12 games against New York.  The Bolts are heavy -688 favourites to win the series and they also boast the top-3 Conn Smythe favourites, Nikita Kucherov (+245), Andrei Vasilevskiy (+351) and Brayden Point (+354).

The Islanders will be hoping home ice is what they need to get back in this series.  They’re 5-2 SU in their last seven home games, but they’re just 4-9 SU in their last 13 home games against Tampa.  New York is a +396 underdog to win the series and they’ve dropped to +1000 to win the Stanley Cup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Everything that could have gone right for the Lightning in Game 5, did go right.  Steven Stamkos broke out of a five-game scoring slump and finished with two goals and an assist in the win.  Alex Killorn also found the back of the net twice, while Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat, Luke Schenn and Point had the other markers.  It was Point’s eighth straight game with a goal, the second-longest streak in NHL playoff history behind Reggie Leach (10).  The normally goal-focused Kucherov tried out being a playmaker, finishing with three assists.  Vasilevskiy made 21 saves for his third shutout of the playoffs.

The Bolts are clearly a bounce-back team.  Tampa hasn’t lost consecutive playoff games since the first round of the 2019 playoffs (13-0), which is the longest streak in NHL history.  Monday’s Game 5 win was also the largest margin of victory in playoff history for the Lightning.  It’s unclear if defenceman Erik Cernak will be available for Game 6.  He sat out Game 5 with an upper-body injury, but there has been no update on his status for Tuesday, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.  Schenn, who was playing his first game since Game 3 of the second round, was Cernak’s replacement on Monday and would presumably be in the lineup again if Cernak can’t go.

Teams that take a 3-2 lead are 47-15 (.758) winning a best-of-7 NHL semifinal series.

New York Islanders

Ouch.  That’s the one word that comes to mind when you think about how Game 5 went for New York.  Nothing seemed to go the Islanders’ way and now they find themselves facing elimination against the defending Stanley Cup Champions.  It was their worst playoff loss in franchise history.  Semyon Varlamov couldn’t make it through the first period, allowing a goal 45 seconds into the game and getting the hook after allowing three goals on 16 shots.  Ilya Sorokin didn’t fare any better, giving up five goals on 26 shots.  The Isles were outshot 19-5 in the first period, allowing three goals in the frame.  They then gave up another three goals in the second period and two in the third.

Mathew Barzal took some heat from coach Barry Trotz after the game.  Barzal was given a major penalty and game misconduct near the end of the second period for cross-checking Jan Ruuta twice, getting him in the face at least once.  After a slow start to the playoffs, Barzal has been a key piece of New York’s offence.  He has 12 points (6G, 6A) in 17 playoff games this year, including three goals this series.

NHL Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win Lightning vs. Islanders?