NFL MVP Odds, Prediction: Matthew Stafford ends regular season as short favourite over Drake Maye

With the NFL’s regular season officially in the books, the MVP award looks like a two-horse race between quarterbacks Matthew Stafford of the Rams and Drake Maye of the Patriots.

Here’s what you need to know.

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NFL MVP odds

Stafford finished the regular season as a -145 favourite to win MVP, while Maye is right behind him at +115. That essentially means this is a two-horse race as the next closest player is Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence at an astronomical +30,000.

Injuries really took a toll on the MVP race this season. Pre-season contenders like Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy all missed significant time, costing them a shot at winning MVP.

Stafford vs. Maye

Both players have a legitimate shot at MVP. Stafford’s case clearly comes down to leading the league in both passing yards (4,707) and passing TDs (46) by a wide margin. For context, Lions pivot Jared Goff finished second in both those categories, finishing with 4,564 passing yards and 34 passing TDs.

Maye had the fourth-most passing yards (4,394) and third-most passing TDs (31) while leading the league in completion percentage (72.0). However, his MVP case comes down to individual and team improvement. Maye doubled his rookie passing yards and passing TDs numbers from his rookie year and New England flipped a 3-14 record into a 14-3 record to win the AFC East.

While the Rams finished second in the NFC West with a 12-5 record, I still give the MVP edge to Stafford. Stafford was the best passer in the league this season and it wasn’t particularly close. L.A. also had a tougher schedule, while New England had the third-easiest strength of schedule.

Prediction: This is Stafford’s year in my mind.