Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Game 5 Prediction, NHL Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jun 23, 2022

The Stanley Cup will be in the building for Game 5 on Friday as the Colorado Avalanche have a chance to clinch their first Stanley Cup championship since 2001.

Tampa Bay
51-23-3-5
AT
June 24, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
Pepsi Center
Colorado
56-19-5-2
Puckline +1.5 -158
Moneyline +168
Over / Under o +6

39%

Betting Action

61%

Puckline -1.5 +132
Moneyline -202
Over / Under u +6

39%

Betting Action

61%

The Colorado Avalanche have three cracks at winning the Stanley Cup as they now lead the Tampa Bay Lightning three games to one in the Stanley Cup Final following a 3-2 overtime victory in Game 4 on Wednesday.  The series shifts back to Denver for Game 5 on Friday.

Colorado is a -178 favourite to win Game 5, while the total is set at 6.0 on the NHL odds.

Lightning vs. Avalanche NHL Playoffs Betting Odds

The Avalanche have to be feeling good heading into Game 5 as they’ve won five of six meetings against Tampa Bay this year, regular season and playoffs combined, including Games 1 and 2 of the Final at home.  It’s been a tight head-to-head, with four of six games being decided by a single goal.  The total has gone Over in seven of the last nine meetings between the teams.

The Lightning need to win twice in Colorado to win this series.  That is concerning given the fact they’ve dropped four of their last five road games in these playoffs.  The total went Under in Game 4 for the first time in this series.  Don’t bank on that continuing, however, as the total has gone Over in four of Tampa Bay’s last six games in Denver.  They’ve also hit the Over in six of their last seven games against Western Conference opponents.

Colorado has been tough to contain, winning eight of their last nine games overall and four of their last five at home.  The Avalanche’s high-flying offence is averaging 5.4 goals per game across their last five contests and they’ve hit the Over in four of those games.

Colorado enters Game 5 as a massive -1667 favourite to win the series after opening Game 1 at -200.  The Lighting are +684 series underdogs after opening Game 1 at +147.  Oddsmakers are calling for this series to end in five games at -172.  The biggest long shot is a Tampa Bay comeback in seven games at +771.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning got on the board early in Game 4, with Anthony Cirelli scoring 36 seconds into the game.  It was the first time Tampa Bay opened the scoring in this series.  They dominated the first period, outshooting the Avalanche 17-4.  After Colorado tied the game in the second period, Victor Hedman gave the Lightning the lead back, but that was the last of their offence in the game.

Andrei Vasilevskiy had another big game in net, stopping 34 of 37 shots, including nine of 10 in overtime.  Vasilevskiy had some of his biggest saves of the game in overtime, including stopping a Logan O’Connor breakaway.  Tampa Bay had won eight straight home games heading into Game 4.  Before Wednesday, their last loss at Amalie Arena came against Toronto in Game 3 of the opening round.

Brayden Point missed a second straight game on Wednesday with a lower-body injury.  Point, who missed the entire second and third rounds of the playoffs after suffering the injury in Game 7 of the first round, played Games 1 and 2 in Denver, but is likely now done for the series.

Colorado Avalanche

Two weeks ago Nazem Kadri was essentially ruled out of the remainder of the playoffs after undergoing surgery on his broken thumb.  On Wednesday he scored the overtime winner to put the Avalanche one game away from the Stanley Cup.  Kadri missed the previous four games after suffering the thumb injury in Game 3 of the Western Conference Final.  Nathan MacKinnon opened the scoring in Game 4 and Andrew Cogliano‘s third period goal sent the game to overtime.  Colorado outshot the Lightning 10-3 in overtime.

After being pulled in Game 3, Darcy Kuemper bounced back in net with 37 saves in Game 4.  It’s tough to fault him for the game’s opening goal as a hard shot tore his mask off before Cirelli potted the puck in the empty net.  Kuemper actually picked up an assist on the game-winning goal, becoming the first goalie in NHL history to record a helper on an overtime goal the Stanley Cup Final.

Andre Burakovsky was originally going to travel with the team to Tampa Bay for Games 3 and 4, but ended up staying in Denver to get treatment for the hand injury he suffered in Game 2.  Burakovsky, who scored the OT winner in Game 1, is listed as questionable for Game 5.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Lightning vs. Avalanche?

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