New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 5 Prediction, Playoff Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jun 20, 2021

Islanders defenceman Ryan Pulock's blocked shot with 2.7 seconds left in Game 4 prevented overtime and tied this series up.

NY Islanders
32-17-4-3
AT
June 21, 2021, 8:00 PM ET
Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay
36-17-1-2
Puckline +1.5 -170
Moneyline +164
Over / Under o +5

38%

Betting Action

62%

Puckline -1.5 +142
Moneyline -197
Over / Under u +5

38%

Betting Action

62%

After a 3-2 Islanders win on Saturday, it’s now a race to two wins as the Lightning and Islanders head back to Tampa Bay for Game 5 on Monday, with the series tied 2-2.  Both teams split their respective two-game homestands and have guaranteed this series will see at least a Game 6.

For Game 5, Tampa is a -189 home favourite to win on the NHL odds, with a total of 5.0.

Islanders vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Odds

There’s a fairly close 60/40 split, with Sports Interaction bettors slightly favouring the Lightning on Monday.  That number clearly reflects how tight this series has been, with three of four games decided by a single goal (the remaining game was decided by two goals).  The Over/Under is seeing a similar split, with just over half of bettors taking the Over.  Only Game 2 has hit the Over in this series.  Game’s 1 and 3 went Under and Game 4 was a push.

Despite picking up a win in Tampa earlier in the series, New York hasn’t fared well at Amalie Arena overall, going 4-9 straight up in their last 13 road games against the Lightning.  Outside of Long Island, the Islanders have been putting the puck in the net, hitting the Over in four of their last five road games.  They’re +161 underdogs to win the series and +587 to win the Stanley Cup, the worst odds of the four remaining playoff teams.

The Bolts have been a solid home team.  They went 25-8-2 at Amalie Arena in the regular season and they’re 8-4 SU in their last 12 homes games.  The total has gone Under in eight of Tampa’s last 11 games overall.  They’re -227 favourites to win the series and +148 favourites to win the Stanley Cup.

New York Islanders

Instead of being tied 2-2 in the series, New York could be trailing 3-1, if not for defenceman Ryan Pulock‘s last-second heroics.  With goaltender Semyon Varlamov out of position, Pulock dived in front of a Ryan McDonagh shot to block the open net with 2.7 seconds left in the game, preventing overtime and salvaging the win.  Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal and Matt Martin all had second period goals in the win.  It was Barzal’s sixth goal in his last eight games.  Varlamov stopped 28 of 30 shots.

One of the keys for New York in the postseason has been balanced scoring.  They had three goals from three different lines on Saturday with seven different players recording a point.  The middle frame is what seems to be making the difference.  The Isles outshot Tampa 17-9 in the second period of Game 4 and they’ve outscored opponents a combined 23-10 in the second period throughout the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Brayden Point extended his postseason goalscoring streak to seven straight games and now leads the playoffs with 12 goals, but it wasn’t enough on Saturday.  It was just Tampa’s second loss in their last eight games.  Point is now tied with Claude Lemieux (1997), Joe Sakic (1996), Mario Lemieux (1996), Pat LaFontaine (1992) and Mario Lemieux again (1991) for the longest playoff goalscoring streak in the last 30 years.  Tyler Johnson had the Lightning’s other goal, while Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 30 shots.  The Bolts are now 0-4 in these playoffs when allowing the first goal of the game.  They’re 10-1 when scoring first.

NHL Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win Islanders vs. Lightning?

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