The Toronto Maple Leafs have secured home-ice advantage in their first-round series with Boston – but they’ll be missing one of their key skaters as they welcome the rival Bruins to Scotiabank Arena for Game 3 on Monday night. Forward Nazem Kadri is facing his fifth career suspension after cross-checking Jake DeBrusk in the face during the Maple Leafs’ 4-1 loss to the Bruins in Game 2. Kadri could miss the rest of the first-round series as a repeat offender.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs NHL Playoffs Betting Analysis
Home ice hasn’t been much of an edge for Toronto of late. The Maple Leafs have dropped five of their last seven at Scotiabank Arena, losing three of those by multiple goals – and they still allowed 11 total goals in the two wins over that span. But Toronto has been dominant at home against the Bruins in recent meetings, winning seven of the previous nine. That said, Boston is playing solid hockey away from TD Garden, with wins in five of its past seven road games.
The teams have gone below the number in their first two games of this best-of-seven series, but the conditions are ideal for this one to go over 6. Toronto has gone an incredible 17-4-1 O/U in its last 22 home games against teams with losing road records, and is 19-7-1 to the over in its past 27 as a home favourite. Boston, meanwhile, has surpassed the number in five of its past six road games while going 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games overall.
These teams finished a whopping 352 penalty minutes apart during the regular season – but the Bruins, who led the NHL with 854 PIMs, have been the more disciplined team so far, incurring just 10 penalty minutes while limiting Toronto to four power plays. They’ve had six PPs of their own and have capitalized two of them; their penalty kill is also perfect through two games, but struggled to a 25th-place finish on the road during the season (78.3 percent).
Toronto Maple Leafs
While the loss of Kadri likely won’t disrupt the Leafs’ top six forward corps, it does leave Toronto thin at center behind the dynamic duo of Auston Matthews and John Tavares. Goaltending has been less of an issue through the first two games; Frederik Andersen didn’t get much help in Game 2, but boasts a .937 save percentage as the team returns home. It’s a major step forward for Andersen, who allowed eight goals in two regular-season starts vs. the Bruins.