2024 World Junior Championship Odds, Prediction: Canada vs. Sweden

Jordan Ramsay
Last Updated: December 28, 2023

Canada’s bid for a World Junior Championship three-peat is off to a strong start after opening the tournament with a 5-2 win against Finland on Tuesday and a 10-0 blowout of Latvia on Wednesday. Sweden has been just as dominant, opening their tournament with a 6-0 win over Latvia on Tuesday and a 5-0 win against Germany on Thursday.

Canada is a -165 favourite to win on the WJC betting odds, with the game total set at 6.0.

2024 World Junior Championship betting odds

Canada’s 5-1 win in the preliminary round last year was the first time in the last five World Junior tournaments that these teams have met. It was the third straight victory for Canada in the head-to-head series and the first since the Canadians defeated Sweden in the gold medal game in 2018. They only met two others times in the last 10 years, with Canada winning 5-2 in the semi’s in 2017 and Sweden winning 5-2 in the preliminary round in 2016.

Canada holds the all-time tournament record with 20 gold medals, while Sweden has won gold just twice. Sweden’s lack of gold medals is a little surprising considering they’ve won 20 total medals, the third-most of any country behind Canada and Russia. The Swedes last won gold in 2012 when they beat Russia in Calgary, while Canada took home the bronze that year. Sweden’s only other World Junior gold came in 1981 when they defeated Finland in the final in what was then West Germany, while Canada failed to make it out of the preliminary round.

Team Canada

Macklin Celebrini is living up to the hype, registering five points (1G, 4A) in Canada’s 10-0 rout of Latvia. The projected first overall pick in the 2024 NHL draft leads the tournament with six points (2G, 4A) through two games. Eight different Canadian players recorded multiple points against Latvia, while Mathis Rousseau earned a 20-save shutout. Rousseau was also in net for the win against Finland, so he appears to have officially locked down the starting job in net, beating out Scott Ratzlaff and Samuel St-Hilaire.

This is a big game for both teams as the winner will likely finish first in Group A. Canada appears to have the edge when it comes to scoring efficiency as they are tied with the U.S. for the tournament lead in goals at 15 (Sweden has 11) and they have the best shooting percentage at 20.8 per cent (Sweden is shooting 14.5 per cent). When it comes to special teams, Canada has scored on three of six power play opportunities and allowed one goal on nine penalty kills.

Team Sweden

It’s tough to find anything wrong with a team that hasn’t allowed a single goal in the tournament. Sweden has completely dominated their first two opponents, outshooting Latvia and Germany by a combined 76-35. Otto Stenberg’s hat-trick led the way for Sweden on Thursday against Germany, while Melker Thelin earned a 15-save shutout. Rather than play Thelin back-to-back, Sweden will likely turn to Hugo Havelid against Canada. Havelid had a 20-save shutout against Latvia on Tuesday.

Like Canada, Sweden’s power play is also clicking at a 50 per cent rate, scoring on four of eight opportunities with the man advantage. One area the Swedes will need to clean up is discipline. They lead the tournament with 33 penalty minutes, although they haven’t allowed a power play goal. A big chunk of those penalty minutes come from defenceman Elias Salomonsson, who received a game misconduct and one-game suspension for hitting a Latvian player from behind just 25 seconds into the tournament-opener on Tuesday. Salomonsson is eligible to return against Canada.