NFL
Edgar Chaput
February 7, 2024

Super Bowl Betting: Why You Should Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs

There is no shortage of storylines as we head into the ultimate football game of the season. In the case of the San Francisco 49ers, it’s a case of revenge being a dish best served cold as memories of Super Bowl LIV flood back. For the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s a matter of adding a building block to what looks very much like a new NFL dynasty.

But there can only be one.

With over a week left until kickoff, we’ll start easy with a focus on the individual teams themselves. Today we make the case why betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl is the better prop.

As of now, the Chiefs are pegged as 2-point underdogs on the Super Bowl odds board.

Defence Wins Super Bowls

Whenever the topic of conversation is the Kansas City Chiefs, most thoughts immediately jump to QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, and head coach Andy Reid. Justifiably so. Without them, what would the Chiefs be? Having said that, this year has been tougher for the offence. Therefore, the other major reason why Kansas City has made it this far is because the defence has successfully carried out its duties to help the team win.

The unit has executed coordinator Steve Spagnuola’s bidding with relish. Based on their branding, are the Chiefs the sort of team that one would imagine to be the second-ranked squad in yards conceded per game? No, but that’s what they were during the regular season (289.8). Are they the club that immediately comes to mind when asked who the second-best team in the NFL was in points given up per match? No, but that’s what they were (17.3). KC was also a top 10 unit on third down, with only 37.1 per cent of attempts converted against them.

And in the playoffs? Oh, nothing to write home about. Just nullifying one of the greatest regular season offences the NFL has ever seen in the Miami Dolphins, then the annually strong Buffalo Bills’ attack, and finally the number one-seeded Baltimore Ravens, the latter two on the road. The Dolphins scored seven points, the Bills 24, and the Ravens 10. No big deal.

LB Nick Bolton is having a postseason to remember with 27 tackles. DE George Karlaftis has collected 2.5 sacks thus far, and Chris Jones, although presently listed as questionable, is always a force to be reckoned with, attracting constant attention from offensive linemen.

For a squad that definitely didn’t win the turnover battle during the regular season (a -11 differential), they’ve forced four fumbles – recovered two – and two interceptions through three playoff games.

Patrick Mahomes and Offence Still Make Headlines

There are no two ways about it. The 2023-2024 Kansas City Chiefs simply were not the same team on offence as they had been in years past. There were stretches when Travis Kelce didn’t quite look like himself. Certain plays were shockingly sloppy, and the wide receiver corps could not have been more criticized as it was this year considering the Chiefs are defending champions.

Yet here they are, back in the Super Bowl. Back thanks to big numbers? Not necessarily, but because of the right numbers. Win the turnover battle and you win the game, correct? Patrick Mahomes has not thrown an interception this postseason. For that matter, he didn’t toss one during last year’s playoff run either. If you can’t take the ball away from him, then you have to outright stop him. Considering he wears two Super Bowl rings and has two MVP trophies on his mantle, that’s not very easy to do.

Just for one second let’s not talk about TE Travis Kelce via Taylor Swift but actually discuss Kelce the player. The man is on a mission to be one of the greatest of all time. He is second this postseason in yards caught (262). He’s accounted for 50 per cent of the offensive TDs the Chiefs have scored (three of six). Backing him up is WR Rashee Rice. The 2023 second-round pick is not as flashy as Tyreek Hill, but he’s making a case that he can be the number one wideout for Mahomes to trust. He finished with 938 yards through 16 games and this postseason has a healthy 223.

And if the passing attack can’t get the job done – which is rare to begin with – the rushing game, led by Isiah Pacheco, can carry the load. The team’s regular season per game average of 104.9 increased during the playoffs to 127.3.

The Chiefs Have No Fear

Lastly, and this final point is less quantifiable than the rest, the Kansas City Chiefs are afraid of nobody.

They weren’t afraid in last year’s AFC Championship bout versus a Bengals team that apparently had their number. They weren’t afraid when down by double-digits to an awesome Eagles team in the Super Bowl. There was no panic when the offence struggled this season. The Dolphins didn’t scare them this year (twice), playing the Bills in Buffalo didn’t, nor did facing Lamar Jackson and the top-ranked Ravens in the AFC title match.

No one can intimidate this ensemble. Whoever slows them down will simply have to be the better team. The issue is that there haven’t been many of those for five straight seasons.