Super Bowl 59 MVP Prediction: Mahomes, Hurts, and Barkley Lead the Odds
Patrick Mahomes is the betting favourite to claim Super Bowl MVP honours, but with other standout players in the mix, this year’s MVP race is shaping up to be an exciting proposition for bettors. Here’s a breakdown of the MVP contenders, trends, and a prediction.
Super Bowl MVP: A Quarterback’s Award to Lose
The Super Bowl MVP award, officially called the Rozelle Trophy, has historically been dominated by quarterbacks. Out of the 57 Super Bowl MVPs awarded, 33 have gone to QBs, including 11 since 2010. The award is largely decided by in-person media voting with a small online fan vote component, making it a popularity contest as much as a performance-based honour.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (+105) leads the Super Bowl 59 MVP odds, and for good reason. With three Super Bowl wins, two MVPs, and a legacy already cemented, Mahomes is poised to continue his dominance. His dual-threat ability was on full display in the AFC Championship, where he rushed for two scores and threw another. His previous Super Bowl performance against the Eagles in 2022 saw him rally the Chiefs with three TD passes to secure MVP honours.
Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts (+375) is another strong contender. Hurts was sensational in Super Bowl LVII, throwing for 304 yards and scoring four total touchdowns, three of them on the ground. While the Eagles fell short, his individual performance was MVP-worthy and could repeat on an even bigger stage.
A Rare Opportunity for a Running Back MVP
If any running back is going to break the QB stranglehold on this award, it’s Saquon Barkley. The Giants superstar (+240) has been having a record-breaking season, tallying over 2,000 rushing yards in the regular season and 442 more with five touchdowns in the playoffs. He is just 30 yards shy of Terrell Davis’s single-season rushing record, set in 1998—a year when Davis also won Super Bowl MVP.
No running back has claimed the MVP since Davis, and no team has paired a regular-season rushing leader with a Super Bowl win since those 1998 Broncos. However, Barkley’s historic run makes him a compelling longshot candidate for value bettors.
Other MVP Contenders
- Travis Kelce (+1500): The Chiefs’ star tight end remains a fan favourite and a critical piece of Kansas City’s offence. With his high-profile relationship with Taylor Swift dominating headlines, Kelce could see a boost from the fan vote.
- Position Betting Odds: Quarterbacks (-250) are the overwhelming favourites to win the MVP, but for those looking to hedge their bets, running backs (+1000) offer intriguing value.
MVP Prop Betting Insights
For beginner bettors, the Super Bowl MVP is one of the most popular prop bets. It’s worth noting that the MVP almost always comes from the winning team, with only one player—Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V—claiming the award in a losing effort. Historically, this makes quarterbacks like Mahomes or Hurts the safest bets.
Super Bowl 59 MVP Prediction
While Patrick Mahomes is the clear favourite, the value lies with Saquon Barkley at +240. Barkley’s incredible postseason performance and potential to break records could sway voters if the Giants pull off a Super Bowl win. For those looking to hedge, a bet on Mahomes or the quarterback position overall is a smart play.