NFL
Sports Interaction Staff
September 27, 2017

Saints vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction

Adam Gase described the Miami Dolphins offense as “garbage” following last week’s humbling loss to the New York Jets. Whether it will remain garbage – or rubbish, as they say in merry ol’ England – is on the minds of bettors everywhere as the Dolphins and New Orleans Saints square off at London’s Wembley Stadium. Miami couldn’t do much of anything against the Jets, settling for a last-second touchdown in a 20-6 drubbing that left Gase baffled.

The Saints are pegged as field goal favourites on the NFL odds board for this neutral-site matchup.

New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins

Point spread: Dolphins +3

Date: Sunday, October 1, 9:30 a.m. ET

Wembley Stadium, London, England

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Miami is getting a field goal in this one, and you have to wonder if that number should be higher. The Dolphins are averaging a paltry 0.19 points per play through two games this season, well below the 0.39 PPP rate they posted last season. The ground game has floundered (3.0 YPC) while quarterback Jay Cutler hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since October 2015. So it’s no surprise that 76 percent of Sports Interaction NFL bettors are backing the Saints.

As for the over/under, bettors are expecting plenty of fireworks in this one, with 84 percent going over the 49.5-point total. The teams have met just twice since 2009, but those games averaged 67.5 points between them. New Orleans has played over the total in each of its last six games, thanks in part to Drew Brees’ continued excellence (867 yards, six TDs, zero INTs) and in part to the Saints’ continued struggles on defense (26 points allowed per game).

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have gotten off to some miserable starts this season, allowing an average of 8.7 first-quarter points per game; despite this, you’ll only get -141 odds on Sports Interaction for New Orleans to score first. The Saints’ previous five victories dating back to 2016 have come by at least seven points, so if you have faith in that trend continuing Sunday, you’ll get +400 odds if you pick New Orleans to win by between six and 10 points.

Miami Dolphins

While most of the headlines are focused on the Dolphins’ struggling offense, the defense has excelled – limiting the Chargers and Jets to a combined 37 points despite playing in hostile environments. If you believe the Miami defense will step up yet again, you can shave a few points off the total and take under 46.5 at +128. The Dolphins have played to the under in their last three games, while New Orleans has gone over just once in its last eight games following a straight-up win of 14 or more points.