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Falcons vs. Packers NFL Same-Game Parlay: Michael Penix Jr. is back for TNF

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Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will get his first start of the season when the Atlanta Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers for Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay opened as a 7-point favourite, however, the spread has fluctuated quite a bit, dropping as low as Packers -4.5.

With a Penix returning and a shifting spread, here’s what I have for a four-leg parlay:

  • Spread: Atlanta +4.5
  • Total: Under 43.0
  • Bijan Robinson anytime TD
  • Bijan Robinson 50+receiving yards

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Falcons vs. Packers Week 3 TNF Game Preview and Score Prediction

Spread: Falcons +4.5

Taking Atlanta to cover as 4.5-point underdogs is a no-brainer to me. Michael Penix and Bijan Robinson have enough chemistry to kickstart the Falcons’ offence, but I’m looking more at what a mess Green Bay is right now.

Micah Parsons will remain on the PUP list for at least the next few weeks and there’s no telling when, or if, Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs will play this year. The team is also dealing with several key injuries, including losing receiver Jayden Reed (neck, out Week 3) and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele (knee, done for season) on the opening drive last week.

Atlanta doesn’t need to be spectacular in this game, they just need to be competent.

Total: Under 43.0

Like the spread, the total continues to drop, opening at 44.5 and moving to 43.0 as of Thursday morning. As it stands, I still lean Under, but be wary if this number falls another 1.5+ points.

Penix’s return is great for Atlanta in the long run, but expectations should be tempered. The third-year pivot has been riddled with injuries throughout his professional career and he hasn’t played since Week 11 of last season after tearing his ACL. That doesn’t spell offensive explosion in his first game back.

On the other side, Green Bay’s Jordan Love has been inconsistent in 2026. Through two games, Love has completed just 52.1 per cent of his passes for 532, four TDs and one interception. That’s the lowest completion rate of any quarterback this season with at least 30 pass attempts.

I’m also looking at these defences, The Falcons rank first against the rush and 12th overall, while the Packers are top-10 both against the pass and rush, while ranking fifth overall.

Bijan Robinson anytime TD and 50+ receiving yards

One of the big reasons I like Atlanta to cover this number is because I expect Bijan Robinson to have himself a day. He opened the year with 173 total yards (83 rushing, 90 receiving) against Pittsburgh in Week 1 before putting up 72 rushing yards and just nine receiving yards last week against Carolina.

Getting Robinson back involved in the passing game should be key for the Falcons this week. Robinson averaged 53.7 receiving yards in Penix’s starts last season and I like that to continue for two reasons: No. 1, Penix will lean on already-established chemistry with Robinson; And No. 2, Atlanta could be chasing this game, so they’ll need to throw the ball to stay in it.