NFL Wildcard Preview: AFC

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A look, now, at the two AFC wildcard playoff games this weekend. All NFL football betting lines come courtesy Sports Interaction’s online sportsbook.

New York Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

The Numbers: The Bengals are 2.5-point favourites for this contest, with the Over/Under sitting at a very conservative 34 points. The Week 17 blowout win by New York — the Jets trounced the Bengals 37-0 in a game that meant everything for Gang Green but nothing for the Cardiac Cats — has definitely swayed some of the numbers for this game. The Bengals are favoured by less than a field goal despite a five-game winning streak at home.

The Matchup: Ground game vs. ground game. The Jets lead the NFL in rushing attempts per game this year (38) while the Bengals were fourth, with 32. With snowy, near-freezing conditions projected for Cincinnati this weekend, this game could be a true grind-it-out affair; it’s hard to imagine either Mark Sanchez or Carson Palmer (two USC guys, might we remind you) airing it out in awful/cold conditions.

The Intangible: Brad Smith. Smith, the former star QB at the University of Missouri, has come on in recent weeks for the Jets. While he was once primarily a kick returner who caught the occasional pass lined up out wide, it appears Smith is now the key figure when the Jets run the wildcat. In Week 17 against Cincy, Smith carried four times for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens (9-7) at New England Patriots (10-6)

The Numbers: The Pats are a 3.5-point home favourite, and the Over/Under is listed at 43 points. This probably has a lot to do with the game these two played back in Week 4 — the Pats won 27-21 that day, but the deciding factor was Ravens WR Mark Clayton dropping a fourth-down pass with 28 seconds left that handed New England the game. Had Clayton had hauled it in, the Ravens would’ve moved the chains and been inside the Pats’ 10-yard line with a few more cracks at the end zone.

The Matchup: Ravens secondary vs. Randy Moss. With WR Wes Welker done (torn ACL) for the remainder of the season, all eyes will be on Moss in the Patriot passing game. Moss (83 catches) caught 40 fewer balls than Welker this season and seemed to relish having a sure-handed slot reciever that had to be covered — it always opened Moss up for longer routes and deeper passes. Now, he’s without his security blanket, so to speak. Back in Week 4, it was Ravens CB Domonique Foxworth who primarly covered Moss…And Randy went for 50 yards and a TD that week. Will it be the same again this Sunday?

The Intangible: Ray Rice. The Pats didn’t do a great job of keeping Baltimore’s Pro Bowl RB in check last time they played — Rice went for 152 all-purpose yards, although he was held out of the end zone. The problem facing New England now, though, is that Rice is one of the hottest backs in the NFL — he had two 140+yard games in the month of December alone and has averaged 5.3 yards per carry this season. He is, without a doubt, a game-breaker that has to be paid attention to at all times.