NFL Week 5 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
It’s also the first London game of 2024 but back to a single Monday night matchup after back-to-back doubleheaders. Here’s a look at all Week 5 games with NFL odds and played Sunday unless noted.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Thursday
First NFC South game of the season for both and they split last year, each winning close on the road. The Bucs lead the division by a game over the Falcons and Saints, with Atlanta beating New Orleans on Sunday on a last-second long field goal. Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and totaled three TDs in his team’s easy home win over short-handed Philadelphia despite the Bucs playing again without All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who isn’t expected back Thursday. A few other defenders left injured.
Pick ATS: Atlanta
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday kick at 9:30 a.m. ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. The Jets appeared to have figured things out offensively but then were shocked at home by Denver on Sunday, 10-9. Star running back Breece Hall was held to four yards on 10 carries, and Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times on a rainy day. New York also was penalized 13 times. A few more games like that and Coach Robert Saleh will be fired. A case can be made that no team has been more impressive so far than the unbeaten Vikings, who jumped out to a big early lead in Green Bay on Sunday and held on. In doing so, Minnesota became the first team in NFL history to win three straight games within a season all without trailing against teams who won playoff games the previous season.
Pick ATS: Minnesota
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
These franchises will be linked for years after the Bears traded the 2023 No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers, who used it on QB Bryce Young. That looks like one of the worst trades in league history for Carolina at the moment with Young benched. In that deal, Chicago also got the 2024 No. 1 overall pick and used it on QB Caleb Williams. Young isn’t playing currently for the Panthers as he was benched two games ago for veteran Andy Dalton. The Cats lost at home Sunday to Cincinnati and lost starting linebacker Shaq Thompson to a season-ending injury. Williams led the Bears to a 24-18 home win over the Rams. He did not have a turnover, which had been an issue in the early going.
Pick ATS: Chicago
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens might only be 2-2 but after one-sided wins the past two weeks over Dallas and Buffalo, I think they are the best all-around team in the league. They trashed the unbeaten Bills 35-10 on Sunday night behind 199 yards rushing and a TD from Derrick Henry and three total TDs from QB Lamar Jackson. Henry looks in his prime at age 30 in averaging 6.0 yards per carry this season with six total TDs. Baltimore is the first team in NFL history to outrush its opponent by at least 100 yards in each of its first four games of a season. Cincinnati’s season still has a pulse after it avoided a 0-4 start with a 34-24 win at Carolina. Top pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson sustained a neck stinger in the fourth quarter and did not return. The Ravens were 2-0 vs. the Bengals last season.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati (alternate line of +3)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Short week for Miami after the offence could do nothing a second straight week without injured starting QB Tua Tagovailoa – who is out at least two more games. Recently signed Tyler Huntley got the start Monday in a 31-12 home loss to previously winless Tennessee. Huntley threw for all of 96 yards. It’s unclear what New England coach Jerod Mayo is waiting for to bench journeyman QB Jacoby Brissett for rookie No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye as the Pats offence was inept yet again Sunday in a 30-13 loss at San Francisco. Brissett threw for only 168 yards with a pick-six. Mayo said Monday he isn’t considering a quarterback change. The Dolphins swept the Patriots last season.
Pick ATS: New England
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is the clear Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite after another spectacular game Sunday in a blowout win in Arizona as Daniels has become the first quarterback in league history with an completion per centage of 85 in back-to-back games and has the highest completion per centage (82.1) in a four-game span of any QB since 1970. On the flip side, Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson struggled again Sunday in a 20-16 loss in Las Vegas. Watson was sacked on fourth-and-3 from the Raiders’ 9 with 35 seconds left. You can’t be sacked on that play. Throw it up at worst.
Pick ATS: Cleveland
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville looks lost at 0-4 and had every chance to win in Houston on Sunday but allowed a TD in the final seconds in a 24-20 defeat. Coach Doug Pederson was peppered with questions about his job security afterward. Pederson is 18-20 in his three-plus seasons with the Jaguars, but that includes a 1-9 record in the team’s past 10 games. The Colts lost starting QB Anthony Richardson to injury in Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh but upset the previously unbeaten Steelers anyways with 39-year-old Joe Flacco playing well in relief and Jonathan Taylor rushing for 88 yards and a TD. Taylor also left with an injury and too early to know on him and Richardson, but neither injury is overly serious. Taylor seems unlikely for Sunday but Richardson is possible. Jacksonville won both meetings last season by double digits.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville (alternate line of -2.5)
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Arguably the marquee matchup of Week 5 between 2023 AFC division winners. Buffalo suffered its first loss of the season Sunday night, 35-10 in Baltimore, playing without defensive starts in linebacker Terrel Bernard and cornerback Taron Johnson. Josh Allen was the MVP favourite entering Week 4 but was held to a quiet 180 yards with no scores. The Bills’ NFL-record streak of 43 consecutive regular-season games without a loss by six or more points came to an end. Houston rallied for a 24-20 home win over winless Jacksonville as the Texans played a second game in a row without top RB Joe Mixon. CJ Stroud hit Dare Ogunbowale on a 1-yard TD pass with 18 seconds left.
Pick ATS: Houston
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Las Vegas played without Pro Bowl receiver Davante Adams (week-to-week) on Sunday but upset visiting Cleveland 20-16 by holding the Browns to just 241 yards even with star pass-rusher Maxx Crosby out as well. The Raiders became the first team since the Jets in 2010 against the Bengals to have two receivers score rushing touchdowns. What has gotten into Denver? It has won back-to-back games at expected division contenders after a 10-9 upset at the Jets on Sunday. That despite rookie QB Bo Nix throwing for just 60 yards on 25 attempts. Las Vegas was 2-0 vs. Denver last season.
Pick ATS: Denver (alternate line of -2.5)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers got Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back from injuries on Sunday and easily handled New England, 30-13, to snap a two-game skid – although Kittle banged up his ribs. Jordan Mason rushed for 123 yards and a TD and has been terrific with superstar running back Christian McCaffrey yet to play this season and not close to doing so. Star linebacker Fred Warner had a pick-six but left the game late in the first half with an ankle injury and didn’t return. Arizona was trounced at home by Washington, 42-14, and allowed 449 yards. Star tight end Trey McBride was out. The 49ers blew out the Cardinals in both meetings last season.
Pick ATS: San Francisco (alternate line of -7)
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams
Green Bay got quarterback Jordan Love back from a two-game absence on Sunday, but the Packers got their doors blown off early by Minnesota. Love nearly led a massive comeback in the second half, but it fell short in a 31-29 loss. Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander was out. The Rams were 24-18 losers in Chicago on Sunday again playing without top WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Neither will be back this week.
Pick ATS: Green Bay (alternate line of -3)
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
Short week for Seattle after losing 42-29 in Detroit on Monday. Geno Smith had a career night in throwing for 395 yards, while Kenneth Walker rushed for three scores in his return from a two-game injury absence. The Seahawks hadn’t allowed more than 150 passing yards in a game but allowed Detroit to complete 19 of 19 passes for 273 yards and three scores. Four defensive starters were out injured. New York’s offence again did very little in Week 3, a 20-15 home loss to Dallas on Thursday night. The Giants totaled 26 yards on 24 carries against what had been the NFL’s worst run defence. Stellar rookie Malik Nabers continued his historic start with 12 catches for 115 yards but left with a concussion. That the Giants played on a Thursday can only help Nabers in terms of playing this week.
Pick ATS: Seattle
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday night game and will surely bring back a few Super Bowl memories for older fans. The teams have met in three Super Bowls (Pittsburgh leads 2-1), the most of any two clubs. Dallas snapped a two-game skid with a Thursday night Week 3 road win against the Giants but also lost All-Pro defender Micah Parsons as well as the team’s other top pass-rusher in DeMarcus Lawrence to injury. Neither will play here and Lawrence is out at least four weeks. Despite Justin Fields having easily his best start for Pittsburgh on Sunday in Indianapolis, the defence disappointed in a 27-24 loss. Starting offensive guard James Daniels was among those to leave injured for the Steelers, and his season is finished.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs, Monday
Yet another primetime game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who might be the least impressive 4-0 team in NFL history as Kansas City is only the third team ever to win its first four games by rallying from down at least seven points in each. The Chiefs did lose No. 1 receiver Rashee Rice to a likely season-ending injury in Sunday’s 17-10 comeback win at the Chargers. The Saints lost their second game in a row late in the fourth quarter on Sunday in Atlanta, 26-24 on a 58-yard field goal. Tight end/hybrid QB Taysom Hill scored on a pair of touchdown runs for the Saints before leaving injured.
Pick ATS: New Orleans
