NFL Week 5 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Here’s a quick look at all Week 5 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders, Thursday
These teams played on a Thursday night last year in October and it was ugly offensively with the Commanders winning 12-7 in the Windy City. This might not be much better, although both played terrific games offensively Sunday but lost in the final minutes. Chicago tied its biggest blown lead (21 points) ever in a defeat. It and Carolina are the only NFL winless teams.
Pick ATS: Washington
Jacksonville Jaguars “at” Buffalo Bills
Game from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London – the Jaguars’ second straight game in the city. They are the first team to play in London in back-to-back weeks amid rumours they could move there eventually. Jacksonville beat Atlanta 23-7 this past Sunday but the offence continues to disappoint as the O-Line has been an issue. The Bills lost Week 1 at the Jets but have looked like the NFL’s best team since in three straight wins. They crushed the excellent Miami Dolphins 48-20 on Sunday but also lost Pro Bowl cornerback Tre’Davious White to a season-ending injury.
Pick ATS: Buffalo
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
It’s an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year showdown between the two current favourites in Texans QB CJ Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick, and Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, the No. 8 pick. Stroud hasn’t thrown a pick yet and is among the league leaders in passing yards — and Houston is one why shy of its 2023 total already. Robinson is among the rushing leaders and a big part of the Falcons’ 2-2 start. The team opted to NOT take a bye week despite playing last Sunday in London.
Pick ATS: Atlanta
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Detroit played easily its best game of the season last Thursday in a 34-20 dominating win in Green Bay. After missing a game injured, David Montgomery was back and rushed for 121 yards and three scores. The Lions are clear favourites in the NFC North now. Carolina was a popular upset pick Sunday at home vs. Minnesota and led 10-0 at one point but lost 21-13. Cats rookie QB Bryce Young returned from a one-game injury absence but still couldn’t find the end zone. He looks overmatched.
Pick ATS: Detroit
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
The Titans were 27-3 home winners over Cincinnati on Sunday as Derrick Henry had his first 100-yard game of the season with 122 yards and a TD on 22 carries. Plus, he had a short TD pass on a trick play. Two offensive starters, guard Peter Skoronski and WR Treylon Burks, were out injured. The Colts got good-looking rookie QB Anthony Richardson back from a one-game injury absence and staged a huge late rally to force OT vs. the Rams only to lose in the extra session. Star running back Jonathan Taylor is eligible to be activated off the PUP list this week and perhaps play.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Short week for the Giants after losing 24-3 at home to Seattle on Monday night with Daniel Jones throwing two more picks – on returned 97 yards for a score — and also losing a fumble. He has returned to pre-2022 form and that’s not good. Star RB Saquon Barkley missed a second straight game. Miami’s early record-setting offence got a wake-up call Sunday in Buffalo in a 48-20 loss. Although the Dolphins finished with 393 yards of offence, Buffalo held Miami to 3 of 10 on third down and 0 for 3 on fourth down. Tua Tagovailoa was sacked four times.
Pick ATS: New York
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
New Orleans QB Derek Carr was in major question Sunday with a shoulder injury and perhaps it would have been better if he rested for a week as the Saints’ offence was very quiet in a 26-9 home loss to Tampa Bay despite the season debut of Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara off suspension. How short were Carr’s throws? Kamara had 13 catches but only 33 yards. New England was embarrassed 38-3 in Dallas on Sunday as Mac Jones had two picks and a lost fumble. Coach Bill Belichick after the worst of his career said Jones remains his starter (expect a short leash).
Pick ATS: New England
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore got a gift on Sunday in Cleveland in that Browns starting QB Deshaun Watson was ruled out so the Ravens largely had a walk in the park in a 28-3 victory despite playing without their two top receivers and starting left tackle. Lamar Jackson ran for two scores and threw for two. As good as Pittsburgh looked offensively in the preseason is as bad as it has looked in the regular season and starting QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of Sunday’s loss in Houston. Pickett suffered a bone bruise and is iffy for Sunday — Mitchell Trubisky would start if he can’t.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh if Pickett starts
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles are 4-0 but they have not clicked yet and nearly let one get away Sunday at home against Washington but won on a 54-yard field goal in overtime. AJ Brown had a huge game with 175 receiving and two scores. Philly has started 4-0 in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1992-93. The Rams blew a big fourth-quarter lead in Indianapolis but won in overtime. Matthew Stafford threw a 22-yard touchdown pass to record-breaking rookie receiver Puka Nacua for the win.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia
Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is eligible to be activated off the PUP list but isn’t particularly close health-wise yet and Josh Dobbs is playing very solidly. Dobbs has the second-most rushing yards and fourth-most rushes among quarterbacks this season. The Bengals look broken offensively in the early going and excellent WR Tee Higgins fractured a rib in Sunday’s loss in Tennessee. He’s going to try to play through it.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati (buy down to -2.5)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
NFL fans circled this game this summer when new Broncos coach Sean Payton destroyed the coaching job that Nathaniel Hackett did as the head coach in Denver last year. Hackett was so bad he was fired before finishing Year 1 but is now the offensive coordinator of the Jets – in large part due to his relationship with Aaron Rodgers. It broke the “code” for Payton to rip another head coach and many Jets coaches and players were very angry and looking forward to this game. Rodgers’ season-ending injury and that both teams are terrible has taken away most of the drama now.
Pick ATS: Denver
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
The Chiefs escaped at the Jets on Sunday night, 23-20. Patrick Mahomes could have scored a late TD to make it a Kansas City cover, but he fell down at the 1-yard-line and the Chiefs ran out the clock. That was multi-million dollar decision because all the books were massively exposed on Kansas City to cover. The Vikings got their first win of the year Sunday in Carolina 21-13. Justin Jefferson had two TD catches, but it was the awful Minnesota defence that was largely the story. Mahomes & Co. could put up 50 on that group.
Pick ATS: Kansas City
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday night game and a spectacular one with the winner holding a potentially huge tiebreaker for the NFC playoffs. The 49ers still haven’t lost a regular-season game since acquiring running back Christian McCaffrey or with Brock Purdy under centre following an easy 35-16 win at Arizona on Sunday. McCaffrey broke a team record with his 13th straight game with a TD. He had four touchdowns total. The Niners have won 14 consecutive regular-season games. Dallas trounced New England 38-3 with two defensive touchdowns. The Niners beat the visiting Cowboys 19-12 on Jan. 22 in a Divisional Round game.
Pick ATS: San Francisco (buy down to -3)
Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders, Monday
I promise the crowd at Allegiant Stadium will be at least half Packers fans as they have been waiting for a trip to Las Vegas to see their team since the Raiders moved there a few years ago. It’s only the second MNF meeting between the Packers and Raiders (2003 in Oakland). Green Bay has won eight games in a row in the series. Both lost in Week 4 and looked rather bad doing it. The Raiders were without starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo due to a concussion, but generally guys return after missing one game.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas
