NFL Week 4 Weekend Preview: The Big Three

A look now at the three biggest games on the National Football League’s Week 4 slate, with all relevant betting information included. All NFL betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction’s online sportsbook.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Over/Under 45.5

Predictably, the highly anticipated Favre vs. Packers matchup has gone totally hyperbolic. NFL pundits and talking heads have declared this to be the football game to end all football games – it is on Monday night, after all – even though there’s a matchup of undefeated teams (Jets-Saints, which we’ll get into later) and a possible AFC Championship preview (Ravens-Pats, which we’ll also get into later) on the schedule this week.

While this game will focus on Favre, it might be decided by another key figure. Vikings DE Jared Allen has been on fire in recent weeks, registering two sacks and two forced fumbles in his last two games. There’s a good chance he’ll be all over Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, the most-sacked signal caller in the NFL (12 through three games). The Packers’ offensive line is patchwork at best; while they might get starting LT Chad Clifton back for Monday, they’re going to have a difficult time stopping the Minnesota front four of Allen, Ray Edwards, Pat Williams and Kevin Williams – as such, the Vikings look good to cover the three-and-a-half.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-2.0)
Over/Under 44.0

Last week, the Patriots stifled sophomore QB sensation Matt Ryan in a 26-10 victory over Atlanta. This week, they’ll have to contain another second-year star in Baltimore’s Joe Flacco, who has been nothing short of fantastic this season. He’s had two 300-yard passing days and thrown for six scores in three games, igniting a Ravens’ offense that had been dormant for years in the process.

If the Pats want to slow down Flacco, they’ll need to keep an eye on his myriad of receivers. Baltimore’s QB has been highly efficient in mixing up his receiving targets as four players – Derrick Mason, Kelley Washington, Todd Heap and Ray Rice – have at least 10 catches this year. Throw in the fact that RBs Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are both viable threats to catch the ball out of the backfield, and it’s easy to see why Flacco has had such success this season. Baltimore is a sneaky underdog play, and you’ve also got to like the two teams combining to score over 44 points as well.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-7.0)
Over/Under 45.5

It’s awfully strange to see an undefeated team (New York) getting a touchdown, but that’s what the Saints have done to NFL betting this season. Their dynamic offense showed a new wrinkle last weekend, relying more on the run (Pierre Thomas rumbled for 126 yards and two TDs) than the pass (Drew Brees threw for just 172 yards) in picking apart Buffalo 27-7. As such, conventional thinking assumes the Saints can and will score big on anybody. Even a stout Jets defense that, just one week ago, kept Tom Brady and the New England Patriot offense in check? Apparently. The Jets are a tasty underdog play here, but it is their biggest test of the season – if they can emerge from the Superdome with a win, the talk won’t be about New York’s great start, but how they’re a legit contender in the AFC.