NFL Week 4 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Here’s a look at all Week 4 games with NFL odds and played Sunday unless noted.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, Thursday
The past two Thursday night games were from the AFC East, and this is from the NFC East. The Cowboys absolutely blasted the Giants in both meetings last season, and these rosters still aren’t remotely close in talent. That said, they have the same 1-2 records. Dallas hasn’t been able to stop the run in back-to-back home losses, while New York was an upset winner in Cleveland on Sunday behind two TD catches from stellar rookie WR Malik Nabers.
Pick ATS: Dallas
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
The NFC South rivals split last season, each winning at home. Both lost very tough at home late Sunday. The Saints fell 15-12 to Philadelphia as New Orleans allowed the Eagles to convert a third-and-16 in the final minute or so into a 61-yard catch that led to the game-winning touchdown. The Saints had scored an NFL-best 91 points in the first two weeks, but Derek Carr had just 142 yards passing Sunday. The Falcons were driving for the potential winning touchdown on Sunday night vs. Kansas City but failed on third- and fourth-and-1 deep in Chiefs territory and lost 22-17. Atlanta also lost two starting offensive linemen to injury.
Pick ATS: Atlanta
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
The Bears dropped their second in a row Sunday, 21-16 at Indianapolis, but rookie No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams finally showed what he’s capable of with 363 yards passing and two scores. He also threw two picks and was sacked five times. Chicago hasn’t been able to run the ball at all yet. Star WR Keenan Allen missed his second straight game Sunday injured. The Rams were without their two top wideouts Sunday in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (both will miss this one as well) but rallied to beat San Francisco 27-24 on Sunday to avoid a 0-3 start. Kyren Williams totaled three TDs.
Pick ATS: Chicago (alternate line of -2.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
The NFC North rivals split last season, each winning on the road. The Vikings are one of the NFL’s surprise 3-0 teams with QB Sam Darnold playing the best football of his career. He threw four TD passes in Sunday’s win over Houston and did injure his knee, but it’s nothing serious. The Packers are 2-0 without starting QB Jordan Love as they were 30-14 winners at Tennessee on Sunday. Backup QB Malik Willis finished with 202 yards passing and 73 rushing. We likely won’t know if Love can play this week until at least Friday, but this was always the target game for his return from a sprained MCL.
Pick ATS: Green Bay
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
The Steelers weren’t planning to start Justin Fields at quarterback to open this season but Russell Wilson got hurt and Fields has led a 3-0 mark, so even when Wilson if healthy this week there is seemingly no way that Fields will give up the gig for now. Pittsburgh’s defence has been lights out so far and held the Chargers to just 168 yards in Sunday’s 20-10 win. The Colts avoided a 0-3 start with a 21-16 home win over Chicago behind 110 yards rushing and two scores from Jonathan Taylor. The Indy defence forced three turnovers.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers looked as good as he has in a few years on Thursday night in Week 3 in leading the Jets to an easy 24-3 win over the Patriots as Rodgers completed 27 of 35 for 281 yards and two scores as New York ended an eight-game skid vs. New England. Starting right tackle Morgan Moses injured his knee and didn’t return. Denver was one of the biggest upset winners of Week 3, 26-7 in Tampa. Rookie QB Bo Nix didn’t throw a pick after a total of four in the first two games and rushed for a TD.
Pick ATS: New York (alternate line of -6.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Eagles rallied for a 15-12 win in New Orleans on Sunday behind two fourth-quarter touchdown runs from Saquon Barkley, who finished with 147 yards on 17 carries. Jalen Hurts turned the ball over two more times, however. Pro Bowl WR AJ Brown missed his second straight game. The Bucs were stunned at home by Denver, 26-7, and were without two key defensive injured players in tackle Vita Vea and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who likely is out again this week. The Eagles won in Tampa fairly easily in the 2023 regular season but were dominated there in the Wild-Card Round, 32-9.
Pick ATS: Tampa Bay
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Carolina first-year coach Dave Canales made a lot of news last week by benching former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. But it proved to be smart as the Panthers looked completely different Sunday in winning 36-22 in Las Vegas when it looked realistic already that the team might go 0-17. Veteran backup Andy Dalton threw for 319 yards and three scores and will keep the job for now. Cincinnati had rallied from 0-2 starts in each of the past two years to finish with a winning record but is 0-3 after being upset at home by Washington on Monday night despite WR Tee Higgins making his season debut off injury. If the Bengals lose here against their former QB in Dalton, Coach Zac Taylor might be fired.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
These AFC South rivals split in 2023, each winning on the road. Houston was upset at Minnesota on Sunday, 34-7, playing without injured No. 1 running back Joe Mixon. The Texans managed only 296 yards. CJ Stroud threw an interception for the first time in 10 starts. Jacksonville looked completely unprepared Monday in a 47-10 loss in Buffalo to fall to 0-3. QB Trevor Lawrence simply has not been very good in 2024 and Coach Doug Pederson didn’t rule out benching the former No. 1 overall pick. That would be stunning.
Pick ATS: Houston
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals
First-time matchup between former Heisman Trophy-winning QBs in Washington’s Jayden Daniels and Arizona’s Kyler Murray. The Cardinals lost 20-13 at home to Detroit on Sunday as Murray was largely held in check. Rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. did have his third TD catch of the early season. Daniels was nothing short of magnificent Monday night in a 38-33 upset win in Cincinnati with more total TDs (three) than incompletions (two).
Pick ATS: Arizona (alternate line of -3)
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers
Is it time for rookie No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye to get his first start for New England? Not quite yet. The Pats have been utterly inept through the air with veteran Jacoby Brissett starting the first three games and had just 139 total offensive yards in last Thursday’s 24-3 loss at the Jets. Maye relieved Brissett late and finished 4 for 8 for 22 yards and was sacked twice. Coach Jerod Mayo says he’s sticking with Brissett, but we’d expect a very short leash. The 49ers were missing three Pro Bowl offensive players on Sunday due to injury and it showed in 27-24 loss at the Rams, blowing a 24-14 fourth-quarter lead.
Pick ATS: New England (alternate line of +10.5)
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders
Cleveland laid a major egg Sunday at home in a 21-15 home loss to a bad Giants team despite the Browns leading 7-0 just 11 seconds into the game. Deshaun Watson had two TD passes to Amari Cooper. Star Cleveland pass-rusher Myles Garrett aggravated his foot injury and will undergo an MRI. The Raiders players were ripped publicly by coach Antonio Pierce and deservedly after a no-show 36-22 loss to a horrid Carolina team on Sunday in Las Vegas’ home opener. Pierce said not much should be gleaned from his replacing starting quarterback Gardner Minshew with Aidan O’Connell with 4:47 to play.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs are not far at all from being 0-3 and Patrick Mahomes has not played well yet, but they are 3-0 after another late escape on Sunday night in Atlanta. The Chiefs defense stopped Atlanta twice on fourth down in the closing minutes. The Chargers suffered their first loss under new coach Jim Harbaugh, 20-10 in Pittsburgh on Sunday. QB Justin Herbert was a game-time call with a sprained ankle and did start but was knocked out early. X-rays were negative, but his status is certainly up in the air. Both starting L.A. offensive tackles are expected out. The Chiefs were 2-0 vs. the Chargers last season.
Pick ATS: Kansas City
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday night game between 2023 AFC division winners. Baltimore avoided a disastrous 0-3 start with a dominating 28-25 win in Dallas on Sunday that was nowhere near close as the final score. The Ravens rushed for 274 yards, with Derrick Henry totaling 151 yards and two scores on 25 carries. Buffalo looked tremendous on Monday to close Week 3 with a 47-10 home win over Jacksonville behind four passing TDs from Josh Allen, who has won an NFL-best eight straight regular-season starts.
Pick ATS: Baltimore
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, Monday
This kicks at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Two teams with major quarterback problems. The Titans will stick with struggling second-year Will Levis for now, but Coach Brian Callahan felt the need to publicly back him after Sunday’s 30-14 home loss to Green Bay. Levis has a league-high eight turnovers through three games, the most by a quarterback in his team’s first three games over the past three years. Miami lost starter Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion in Week 3 (he’s on IR) and then replacement Skylar Thompson injured his ribs in Sunday’s ugly loss in Seattle. So it may be journeyman Tim Boyle, who relived Thompson, or recently signed Tyler Huntley under centre in this one.
Pick ATS: Miami
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions, Monday
Kicks at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Seattle is a surprise 3-0 and already leads the NFC West by two games, but color me skeptical as the Seahawks have played three really bad teams in the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins. Miami isn’t a bad team when healthy but was far from that in Sunday’s 24-3 loss in the Pacific Northwest. Zach Charbonnet rushed for two TDs for Seattle with No. 1 running back Kenneth Walker missing a second straight game. The Lions were 20-13 winners in Arizona on Sunday. Jared Goff completed his first 14 passes before an incompletion in the third quarter. It was his longest streak without an incompletion to start a game in his nine-year career, and he finished 18 of 23 for 196 yards with two TDs. Pro Bowl tight end Sam La Porta sprained his ankle but should play through it.
Pick ATS: Detroit
