NFL Week 18 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
The “most important” matchup was placed in the Sunday night window. Otherwise, the league groups all playoff-relevant games for the same kickoff time if possible. Every game is divisional.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, Saturday
Will this be the Steelers finale for Coach Mike Tomlin? Maybe. They still have wild card hopes but need a win and some help elsewhere. Baltimore clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs with Sunday’s hugely impressive win over Miami, so it would be foolish for Coach John Harbaugh to play QB Lamar Jackson and his other key starters much if at all. The only reason they might play a quarter or two is because Harbaugh may not want Jackson to have two full weeks of game action off. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore 17-10 in Week 5 despite trailing 10-3 entering the fourth.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, Saturday
Two of the biggest surprise teams in the league are both in the running for the AFC South title and also a potential wild card spot. The winner will claim the division if Jacksonville loses at Tennessee and the victor gets at least a wild card spot. The loser will not make the playoffs. Indianapolis won in Houston 31-20 in Week 2 with rookie QB Anthony Richardson rushing for two scores before leaving with a concussion. His season ended many weeks ago due to another injury.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
I’d expect the Browns to rest most starters as they have clinched a wild card spot and are on a four-game winning streak. Keeping momentum is nice but more important to keep Joe Flacco, etc., healthy for Wild Card Weekend. The Bengals have been eliminated from playoff contention but have the carrot of finishing with a winning record. Cleveland opened the season with a 24-3 home win over Cincinnati when Bengals QB Joe Burrow was clearly not 100 per cent healthy. He was lost for the season many weeks ago.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Detroit doesn’t have a ton of reason to care as the NFC North champion. The Lions can’t be the NFC’s No. 1 seed and probably will finish as the No. 3. The Vikings need a win and quite a bit of help to get a wild card spot. Coach Kevin O’Connell hasn’t announced his starting QB yet. Rookie Jaren Hall started Sunday’s 33-10 loss to Green Bay but had two early turnovers and was benched. Nick Mullens relieved him. Minnesota lost 30-24 at home to Detroit in Week 16 as Mullens threw four picks.
Pick ATS: Minnesota
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Chicago is playing so well of late that maybe Coach Matt Eberflus is actually back next year. What about QB Justin Fields? Remains to be seen because the Bears have earned the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft via Carolina. The Packers earn a wild card spot with a victory. Green Bay opened the season with a 38-20 win in Chicago to continue its domination of the NFL’s oldest rivalry.
Pick ATS: Green Bay (buy down to -2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
The Jags played without starting QB Trevor Lawrence on Sunday but still easily beat Carolina 26-0 and Lawrence should be back this week. The Jaguars win the AFC South with a victory. It still could get a wild card spot with a loss but would need help. The Titans are long eliminated from the playoffs. Jacksonville beat visiting Tennessee 34-14 in Week 11, but the Jags were a lot healthier then than they are now.
Pick ATS: Tennessee
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Will this be the final game as interim Raiders head coach for Antonio Pierce or will he get the full-time job? Most believe that he will. Las Vegas is simply playing for pride at this point. Broncos coach Sean Payton shockingly started Jarrett Stidham over Russell Wilson at quarterback Sunday, and Denver beat the Chargers but was still eliminated from playoff contention. Stidham will start this week again. Denver was upset in Week 1 home by the Raiders, 17-16.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas
New York Jets at New England Patriots
The next time the Jets take the field for a game that matters, presumably Aaron Rodgers will be their quarterback. It’s almost surely the home finale for Pats legendary Coach Bill Belichick, who is not expected back next season. New England beat the Jets 15-10 in Week 3, the Pats’ 15th straight win in the series. That’s the longest active run in the league.
Pick ATS: New England
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Both these teams would clinch the NFC South with a win and Tampa Bay loss at Carolina. The Falcons can’t get to the postseason any other way, but the Saints can with a win and some help. Atlanta beat New Orleans 24-15 in Week 12 thanks to rushing for 228 yards and a TD.
Pick ATS: New Orleans (buy down to -3)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
The Eagles are imploding before our eyes as they were shocked Sunday, 35-31 at home by Arizona and now likely will not win the NFC East. Only with a victory and Dallas loss at Washington, which is not very likely. Philly is so beaten up, Coach Nick Siriani might opt to rest guys this week ahead of Wild Card Weekend. The Giants are playing out the string. New York lost 33-25 in Philadelphia on Christmas.
Pick ATS: New York
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
The simplest way for the Seahawks to get a wild card spot is to win and Green Bay loses to Minnesota. The Cardinals pulled off a stunning upset Sunday in Philadelphia, but that ended any shot the Cards had of getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. Seattle beat Arizona 20-10 in Week 7 before Cards QB Kyler Murray had made his season debut off a torn ACL.
Pick ATS: Seattle (buy down to -2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Chiefs coach Andy Reid surely will rest Patrick Mahomes and other key players because Kansas City is the AFC West champion and locked in as the AFC’s No. 3 seed. The Chargers are playing out the string under an interim head coach. Kansas City beat the Chargers 31-17 in Week 7 behind 424 yards passing and four TDs from Mahomes.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
No reason for San Francisco to play any starters with the NFC’s top seed wrapped up – Christian McCaffrey has already been ruled out this week. The Rams really have no reason to play starters, either, as they are locked into a wild card spot. The Rams lost at home to San Francisco, 30-23, in Week 2. It was the Niners’ ninth straight regular-season win in the series.
Pick ATS: San Francisco
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
This will definitely be the last game as head coach of the Commanders for Ron Rivera. Washington can play major spoiler in his finale as the Cowboys would be a wild card team with a loss and Philadelphia beating the New York Giants. But if Dallas wins, it is the NFC East champion. The Cowboys thumped Washington 45-10 on Thanksgiving.
Pick ATS: Washington
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Carolina will have a new head coach the next time it takes the field, and the Panthers have to hand over the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft to Chicago. Tampa Bay wins NFC South with a victory. QB Baker Mayfield took a huge shot to the ribs in Sunday’s loss to New Orleans but is expected to play in what could be his final game with the franchise. Tampa Bay beat Carolina 21-18 in Week 13.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Sunday night game. The winner wins the AFC East title. Miami is in the playoffs regardless and is completely battered by injury. The Bills would get a playoff spot with a tie (Fins would win division) and still can get a spot with a loss but would need help. Buffalo trounced visiting Miami 48-20 in Week 4 behind four TD passes and a rushing score from Josh Allen.
Point spread: Bills -3
Pick ATS: Buffalo (buy down to -2.5)