NFL Week 16 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Here’s a quick look at Week 16 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams, Thursday
The Saints could be without No. 1 WR Chris Olave for a second straight game, although QB Derek Carr had maybe his best outing of the season Sunday in a win over the Giants without Olave. The Rams are 4-1 since their Week 10 bye to get smack dab in the middle of the NFC wild card race. QB Matthew Stafford is playing like he did in 2021 when he won his first Super Bowl ring with the Rams. The winner has a massive potential head-to-head tiebreaker.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday
The Bengals won their third straight game this past Saturday behind backup QB Jake Browning, 27-24 in OT over Minnesota, to stay very much alive in the AFC wild card chase. However, Pro Bowl receiver Ja’Marr Chase injured his shoulder and probably sits this week. Defensive tackle DJ Reader suffered a torn quadriceps in his right leg and is done for the year. Pittsburgh has lost three straight and not topped 18 points in any with No. 2 Mitch Trubisky largely under centre, so Mike Tomlin is turning to third-string QB Mason Rudolph for his first start of the year unless Kenny Pickett somehow is able to return from injury. That’s not likely. Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati 16-10 in Week 12, the first full game the Bengals played after losing QB Joe Burrow to a season-ending injury.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (buy up to +3)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, Saturday
The Bills caught a break in that they didn’t face the Chargers earlier this season when starting QB Justin Herbert was healthy, but he’s now out for the year. The Bolts looked so bad in their first game without him, a 63-21 loss at Las Vegas on Thursday in Week 15, that Coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco were fired less than 24 hours later. Expect the Bolts to chase Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh. Outside linebackers coach Giff Smith will finish out as the interim head coach. The Bills got a massive win for their playoff hopes Sunday in crushing Dallas 31-10. James Cook rushed for 179 yards and a TD and caught a TD pass. If the Bills can run the ball consistently like that, look out.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis is tied for the AFC South lead (loses tiebreaker) but holds down the AFC’s final wild card spot and beat Pittsburgh 30-13 on Saturday as QB Gardner Minshew matched his career high with three touchdown passes. He lost top receiver Michael Pittman Jr. to a concussion and top rusher Zack Moss to an injured right arm. Jonathan Taylor (right thumb), the 2021 NFL rushing champ, didn’t play, either. Not clear on any for Week 16 yet. Atlanta fell out of first in the NFC South by losing about as ugly as possible Sunday, 9-7 at previously one-win Carolina. That put Falcons coach Arthur Smith right back on the hot seat. Smith has decided to bench QB Desmond Ridder for the second time this season in favour of veteran Taylor Heinicke.
Pick ATS: Atlanta
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
Short week for Seattle as it kept its playoff hopes alive with a 20-17 upset of Philadelphia on Monday to snap a four-game skid with backup QB Drew Lock starting his second in a row. Usual starter Geno Smith was in question with a groin injury but was dressed – he just didn’t play. The Hawks were without stellar rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon and former Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams. The Titans blew a late lead at home to Houston on Sunday and lost 19-16 in OT to end any longshot playoff hopes. Rookie QB Will Levis sprained his ankle and is in question for this one. Former starter Ryan Tannehill might get his job back for now.
Pick ATS: Tennessee (buy up to +3)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
It has to be a record that these NFC North rivals are meeting for the first time this late in a season. They play again Week 18 in Detroit. The Lions snapped a two-game skid Saturday with a dominant 42-17 win over Denver as Jared Goff had five TD passes. They now have a three-game lead over the second-place Vikings and thus could clinch their first division title since 1993 with a win. Minnesota led in Cincinnati 17-3 entering the fourth on Saturday but gave up the tying TD in the final seconds and then lost in overtime. Nick Mullens made his first Vikings start at QB and played well enough to earn another Sunday.
Pick ATS: Detroit (buy down to -2.5)
Washington Commanders at New York Jets
Two teams with nothing to play for but pride. This was originally the spot where Aaron Rodgers planned to return, but no point risking further injury after the Jets were clobbered 30-0 in Miami on Sunday to be eliminated from playoff contention. So good the previous week, Zach Wilson struggled and left with a concussion, so it may be Trevor Siemian here. He was brutal in relief of Wilson in Miami, completing 14 of 26 for 110 yards and two picks. Washington lost its fifth in a row Sunday, 28-20 in LA, and Coach Ron Rivera is 100 per cent gone once the season ends.
Pick ATS: New York (buy down to -2.5)
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
Carolina upset visiting Atlanta 9-7 on Sunday for its second win of the season, although the Panthers still own the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft – which goes to Chicago. Eddy Pineiro hit the winning 23-yard field goal as time expired. Canadian Chuba Hubbard ran for 87 yards on 22 carries for the Panthers, who snapped a six-game skid. Green Bay’s playoff hopes took a massive hit Sunday in a 34-20 home loss to Tampa Bay. That Packers defence has been an issue all season, and Coach Matt LaFleur felt it necessary Monday to say the team is sticking with embattled defensive coordinator Joe Barry the rest of the season. Barry will not be back next year, count on that.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
With Browns QB Deshaun Watson out for the season, he misses a chance to play back in Houston against his former Texans team, but that’s probably a good thing as he would not have been warmly welcomed. Both these playoff hopefuls had improbable wins Sunday. Cleveland trailed at home to Chicago 17-7 in the fourth quarter but won 20-17. Joe Flacco had three ugly picks but also 374 yards and two TDs. Houston was without several starters, including QB and Offensive Rookie of the Year lock CJ Stroud, but rallied for a 19-16 OT win at Tennessee. Stroud should play this week.
Pick ATS: Houston
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Could all three NFL teams from Florida make the playoffs? Decent chance if the Bucs win here as the Jaguars and Miami Dolphins both should – although Jacksonville is slumping on a three-game skid. The Jags had little trouble moving the ball Sunday night vs. Baltimore but kept imploding in the red zone or via missed field goals and lost 23-7 to fall into a first-place tie in the AFC South with Houston and Indianapolis. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield had by far his best game of the season with four TD passes in a surprisingly easy win in Green Bay, the team’s third straight victory. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are tied atop the NFC South, but the Bucs currently own the tiebreaker.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Potentially huge for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft – Chicago owns Carolina’s first-round pick, which currently is No. 1. The Bears would also own the No. 5 pick of their own after blowing a 17-7 lead in Cleveland on Sunday and losing 20-17. It was the third time this season the Bears lost a game when leading by double digits. That’s why Coach Matt Eberflus can’t return in 2024. Arizona, which would currently pick third, lost 45-29 at home to the Niners on Sunday despite running for 234 yards.
Pick ATS: Chicago
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
Potential Super Bowl 58 preview and matchup of MVP-calibre QBs in Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa. Prescott was the MVP favourite before struggling mightily Sunday in a blowout loss in Buffalo, throwing for just 134 yards with no TDs and a pick. But Dallas as a whole has been a vastly different (worse) team on the road for the most part in 2023. Miami played without superstar receiver Tyreek Hill but still pounded the Jets. Decent chance Hill returns for this one as the Fins try to close in on the AFC East title.
Pick ATS: Miami
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Sunday night game and it could be brutal offensively. New England is simply playing out the string with Bailey Zappe under centre, but the team will certainly add a QB this offseason either early in the draft, trade or free agency. Denver’s defence had a rare off game Saturday in a blowout loss in Detroit. If the Broncos lose here as well, they can all but kiss a wild card spot goodbye.
Pick ATS: Denver
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, Monday
Kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. The Raiders lost 31-17 at home to the Chiefs in Week 12 despite leading 14-0 early. Isiah Pacheco rushed for two touchdowns for the Chiefs, who have won six straight and 16 of the past 18 in the series. Las Vegas was shut out at home in Week 14 by Minnesota … and then scored 63 points four days later on Thursday in Week 15 in an obliteration of the Chargers despite No. 1 running back Josh Jacobs missing the game injured. Kansas City won 27-17 at New England on Sunday and is close to clinching an eighth straight AFC West title.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas (buy up to +10.5)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, Monday
Kickoff at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX. It has to be a record that these NFC East rivals are meeting for the first time this late in a season. They play again Week 18 in New Jersey. The Tommy DeVito hype train came to a grinding halt on Sunday as the Giants’ three-game winning streak was snapped in a one-sided loss in New Orleans. DeVito played OK and will remain the starter. Short week for Philly after a 20-17 upset loss in Seattle on Monday to close Week 15, Philly’s third straight defeat. That loss probably handed the NFC’s top seed to San Francisco, although the Eagles still control their NFC East destiny.
Pick ATS: New York
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, Monday
The usual Monday night game and very possibly a preview of Super Bowl 58 and matchup of MVP-calibre QBs in Lamar Jackson (former winner) and Brock Purdy, who is now the MVP favourite after four TD passes in Sunday’s 45-29 win at Arizona. Running back Christian McCaffrey is the new Offensive Player of the Year favourite after rushing for 115 yards and a TD and catching two TD passes. He’s tied for the league lead with 20 total touchdowns. The Niners, on a six-game winning streak, control their destiny to earn the NFC’s top seed just like the Ravens do in the AFC after an impressive 23-7 win in Jacksonville on Sunday. Baltimore has won four straight.
Point spread: 49ers -5.5
Pick ATS: Baltimore
