NFL Week 14 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Neither the Cardinals nor Commanders are close to a playoff team, so it won’t really help/hurt them in the grand scheme of things. Here’s a quick look at Week 14 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday
With both teams massively struggling offensively and using a backup quarterback in Bailey Zappe for New England and Mitch Trubisky for Pittsburgh – Trubisky out of necessity as starter Kenny Pickett was hurt Sunday in a brutal home loss to Arizona – the total is only 30. That’s the lowest in the league since 2005. When they played last year, it was Trubisky vs. Mac Jones and 31 points were scored.
Point spread: Steelers -6
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons at 6-6 lead the NFC South by a game over 5-7 Tampa Bay with both winning Sunday as they should have against poor opposition. Atlanta goes for the season sweep as it won 16-13 in Tampa in Week 7 on a walk-off 51-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo. The Bucs had tied it just 45 seconds earlier.
Point spread: Falcons -2.5
Pick ATS: Atlanta
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Maybe the worst loss this season (not by margin) was Chicago blowing a 26-14 lead in Detroit with about three minutes left in Week 11 and somehow losing 31-26. The Lions can’t clinch the NFC North this week but are three games up on second-place Minnesota and Green Bay. Chicago sits in last but upset the Vikings 12-10 in Minnesota in Week 12 before a Week 13 bye, so the Bears should be pretty healthy.
Point spread: Lions -3
Pick ATS: Detroit (buy down to -2.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
The Colts won their fourth in a row Sunday, 31-28 in OT in Tennessee. QB Gardner Minshew, a free-agent-to-be, makes some boneheaded plays at times, but he has made himself some money filling in for injured starter Anthony Richardson this season and threw for 312 yards and two scores. Former NFL rushing king Jonathan Taylor was out injured and won’t play here. Cincinnati got one of the surprise wins of the season on Monday in stunning the Jaguars in Jacksonville, 34-31, as backup QB Jake Browning (starter Joe Burrow is done for the year) was shockingly good in completing 32 of 37 for 354 yards and a TD.
Point spread: Colts -1
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville had a chance to enter Week 14 as the AFC’s top seed but perplexingly allowed 34 points on Monday night at home in a loss to a backup Cincinnati QB in a loss and also saw its star QB Trevor Lawerence suffer a high ankle sprain. The team hasn’t ruled the former No. 1 overall pick out yet this week, but it would be a major surprise if he plays as those are almost always multi-week injuries. CJ Beathard is his backup. Cleveland started Joe Flacco off the trash heap on Sunday at the Rams and the Browns lost easily (although Flacco didn’t play that badly). It likely will be back to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under centre if he clears the concussion protocol.
Point spread: Browns -3
Pick ATS: Cleveland (buy down to -2.5)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans won at Carolina, 20-17, in Week 2. This figures to be similarly offensively ugly. Saints quarterback Derek Carr is in concussion protocol and suffered shoulder and back injuries in Sunday’s loss to Detroit, so it likely will be backup Jameis Winston here. Carolina looked a little better offensively Sunday in its first game since firing head coach Frank Reich in a 21-18 loss at Tampa, but No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young still managed only 178 yards with a pick. The big star was Canadian tailback Chuba Hubbard and his 104 yards and two TDs on 25 carries. He’s the man now.
Point spread: Saints -4.5
Pick ATS: New Orleans
Houston Texans at New York Jets
Isn’t it funny how No. 2 overall pick quarterbacks can be so different? Houston took CJ Stroud at that spot in this year’s draft, and he’s a lock to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and is on pace to set numerous records. The Jets took Zach Wilson at No. 2 in 2021, and he’ll likely never be a full-time starter in the league again he has been so bad. The Jets started journeyman Tim Boyle at QB a second straight week Sunday and they lost a fifth in a row as the ineptness continued offensively. Boyle is gone so it will be either Wilson, Trevor Siemian (relieved Boyle on Sunday) or this week’s signing Brett Rypien. Houston got a huge win Sunday over Denver but lost stellar rookie wideout Tank Dell, easily the team’s best at the position, to a season-ending injury.
Point spread: Texans -5
Pick ATS: NY Jets
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
The Rams are surging on a three-game winning streak after a 36-19 home win over Cleveland on Sunday. Matthew Stafford looks like his 2021 self when the Rams last won three in a row and also the Super Bowl. Baltimore comes out of the bye tied for the AFC’s best record at 9-3 but technically second in the overall standings behind Miami.
Point spread: Ravens -7
Pick ATS: Baltimore (buy down to -6.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders
The Vikings come out of their bye following back-to-back losses but still in the wild card hunt, and receiver and 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson will return from injury for his first game since Oct. 8. He still hasn’t played with current starting QB Josh Dobbs. The Raiders also come out of their bye on a two-game skid and with less wild card hopes. This will be one of many games Sunday featuring backup QBs as it’s Dobbs vs. Las Vegas rookie Aidan O’Connell.
Point spread: Vikings -3
Pick ATS: Las Vegas (buy up to +3)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
The Niners essentially won the NFC West on Thanksgiving Night when they trounced the Seahawks, 31-13, in Seattle. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 114 yards and two scores in the first half alone as San Francisco won its fourth straight in the series. No team is playing better than San Francisco right now as it won a third straight game Sunday in destroying the 10-1 Eagles in Philadelphia. QB Brock Purdy is now an MVP favourite. Seattle’s offence woke up on Thursday in Week 13 in Dallas, but the defence didn’t in a 41-35 loss, the team’s third in a row.
Point spread: 49ers -10.5
Pick ATS: Seattle
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Most weeks, this spectacular AFC matchup between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes would be in primetime, but the Sunday night game is equally good and CBS would never give this up without a major fight. These teams met in the playoffs following the 2020 & 2021 seasons and Kansas City won both at home. They met last regular season also in KC and Buffalo prevailed 24-20. Allen threw for 329 yards and three scores, and Mahomes threw for 338 and two TDs but two picks. The Bills need this MUCH more as their only route to the playoffs is (essentially) the wild card, but they are 11th in the AFC.
Point spread: Chiefs -2.5
Pick ATS: Buffalo
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
First meeting of the season between AFC West rivals. Denver’s five-game winning streak ended Sunday in Houston when Russell Wilson was picked off in the end zone with nine seconds left. Doubly painful loss as now the Texans hold a crucial head-to-head wild card tiebreaker. At 5-7, the Chargers essentially have to win this to keep their hopes alive. They scored six points Sunday … and won in New England to snap a three-game skid.
Point spread: Chargers -2.5
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday night game and the Eagles can all but wrap up another NFC East title with the season sweep as they beat the visiting Cowboys, 28-23, in Week 9. Dallas probably was the better team with 406 yards to just 292 for Philly. The Eagles do appear really beaten up both mentally and physically right now as they were dominated at home by San Francisco on Sunday, but playing the Bills, Chiefs and Niners three straight weeks will do that. Dallas has been an offensive juggernaut at home and scored 41 more on Thursday in Week 13 to beat Seattle. The Boys have won 14 straight at home.
Point spread: Cowboys -3.5
Pick ATS: Dallas (buy down to -3)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, Monday
Kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Any minor wild card chances the Titans had ended Sunday in a 31-28 home OT loss to Indianapolis. Star defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons was hurt in the fourth quarter and will miss a few weeks. There was some speculation star RB Derrick Henry landed in the concussion protocol, but the team denied it. Miami will be the AFC’s No. 1 seed if it wins out as it is atop the conference following an easy 45-15 rout at Washington on Sunday. The Fins are 9-3 for the first time since 2001.
Point spread: Dolphins -13.5
Pick ATS: Miami
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants, Monday
Kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC – surprised these games aren’t staggered like two earlier MNF doubleheaders. Green Bay has risen from the dead on a three-game winning streak and no quarterback in the league has played better in that stretch than Jordan Love. However, top WR Christian Watson injured his hamstring in Sunday’s upset of Kansas City. The Giants come out of their bye on a two-game winning streak and have named undrafted free agent rookie Tommy DeVito as their starting QB the rest of the way. He has played reasonably well.
Point spread: Packers -6.5
Pick ATS: New York (buy up to +7)
