NFL Week 13 Odds Report: Eagles Are Historically Rare Home Underdogs

We feel obligated to tell you that Aaron Rodgers returned to Jets practice this week in historically fast time off the torn Achilles he suffered in Week 1. The four-time MVP was thought to be targeting Dec. 24 as a potential return from his torn Achilles but hasn’t ruled out an earlier comeback. It just won’t be this week vs. Atlanta with the forgettable Tim Boyle under centre again. Here are three Week 13 games that saw some odds movement and why.

49ers at Eagles (+1 to +3)

Philadelphia is 10-1 for the second season in a row, becoming the fourth team in NFL history to win at least 10 of its first 11 games in consecutive years, joining the 1941-42 Bears, 2005-06 Colts and 1972-73 Dolphins. The 1972-73 Dolphins are the only team to start 11-1 or better in back-to-back seasons. Philly will become the first 10-1 or better team to be a home underdog with its normal starting QB in the regular season since 1970. So what’s going on here? First off, the Eagles have played back-to-back wars against fellow Super Bowl contenders Kansas City and Buffalo – last week’s game was truly epic with Philly winning in OT. Second, the team is banged up.

QB Jalen Hurts is the MVP favourite but you can see when he runs that his knee is not 100 per cent. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (groin), linebacker Zach Cunningham (hamstring), and safety Justin Evans (knee) are all iffy. The six-time Pro Bowler Cox may not be what he used to be but is still a force. The club was hoping excellent tight end Dallas Goedert would return from injury this week, but that’s not looking likely. Third, the Niners have been crushing people since exiting their Week 9 bye and have the revenge factor for last season’s NFC title loss in the City of Brotherly Love. The Niners have not had a 1,000-yard rusher since 2014, the longest drought in the league, but Christian McCaffrey is only 61 yards short.

Chargers at Patriots (+4.5 to +5.5; total 42.5 to 40.5)

Most NFL fans residing outside of the Boston area hate the Patriots for all the success they had with a once-in-a-lifetime golden ticket in Tom Brady, so most NFL fans right now are reveling in the fact that no team right now is a bigger disaster at quarterback or offensively overall than Bill Belichick’s club. And let’s be clear, he will not be coaching the Patriots year. Belichick has stubbornly stuck with former first-round pick Mac Jones as this season’s starter despite pulling him twice. Last week’s 10-7 loss to the nearly as inept Giants apparently was the last straw as Bailey Zappe, a 2022 fourth-round pick, reportedly make his third career start. He actually won both in 2022 but then came crashing back to reality.

In relief of Jones this year, Zappe has been maybe the worst QB in the NFL, completing 19 of 39 (48.7 per cent) for 158 yards, zero TDs and two picks for a rating of 38.2. If a QB takes a snap and falls down he gets a rating of 40. Not really but close. So one can understand why this spread rose but also has dropped back a half-point, which tells you that bettors/oddsmakers think Zappe is an upgrade. Jones, incidentally, might not even be active or third string if he is. It will be a bit cold and rainy Sunday so that and the QB situation explains the total. It might go down further if top Chargers WR Keenan Allen can’t play. 

Browns at Rams (-5 to -3.5)

This got as high as 5 at some books early this week when it looked like Cleveland might be without star pass-rusher and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett, top wideout Amari Cooper and to a much lesser extent rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Garrett said he heard a pop in his shoulder last Sunday and that led to major concern, but there was no structural damage and the former No. 1 overall pick might play. Cooper is likely to play. DTR is still in the concussion protocol so probably 50-50 on him, but newly signed Joe Flacco is an upgrade as a passer even though Flacco is about 50 years old and hasn’t been good for five years.

Bettors/books trust veterans over mid-to-late-round rookies. Flacco, the Super Bowl XLVII MVP while with the Ravens, would be the fourth quarterback to start for the Browns this season. Cleveland is currently the AFC’s sixth seed, but since 1950 only seven teams have made the playoffs in a season where they started at least four different QBs.