NFL Week 12 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
It’s the lightest schedule of the 2024 regular season thus far in the NFL as a season-high six teams are on the bye: Atlanta, Buffalo, Cincinnati, New Orleans, NY Jets and Jacksonville.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, Thursday
These AFC North rivals split last season, each winning close at home. The Steelers upset the Ravens on Sunday, 18-16, to win their fifth straight game and take control of the division race. Pittsburgh improved to 2-0 this year when not scoring a touchdown. The Browns had a season-high 443 yards of offence on Sunday but lost 35-14 in New Orleans. Jameis Winston’s 395 yards passing in a losing effort were the most by a Cleveland QB since 2018.
Pick ATS: Cleveland
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
It’s the first meeting between these NFC North rivals and they split two low-scoring games in 2023, each winning on the road. The Bears were on the rise entering Week 8 but lost on a Hail Mary in Washington and haven’t won since. They dropped a fourth straight game on Sunday, 20-19 at home to Green Bay when Chicago’s potential winning 46-yard field goal as time expired was blocked. The Vikings surpassed last season’s win total with their eighth of the year on Sunday, 23-13 at the Titans. In a three-game winning streak, Minnesota is allowing just 11.0 PPG.
Pick ATS: Chicago
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Detroit is so far and away the best offensive team in the NFL as we saw Sunday when the Lions trashed Jacksonville 52-6 and could easily have scored 60. Detroit had a franchise-record 645 total yards, and the team’s eight-game winning streak is its longest in a season since 1934. That’s the last time the Lions started 9-1. It will be an upset at this point if they aren’t the NFC’s top seed. The Colts opted to go back to former No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson at QB on Sunday at the Jets after Richardson was benched for two games. Smart move as he threw for a score and rushed for two, including the winning 4-yard score with 46 seconds left in the 28-27 upset to keep Indy’s playoff hopes alive.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots welcomed two key defensive starters back on Sunday but couldn’t much slow the Rams in a 28-22 home loss. Rookie QB Drake Maye again showed some promising signs by throwing for 282 yards with two scores. The Pats are 3-8 or worse in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1992-93. The Dolphins suddenly have some wild-card hopes after back-to-back wins. They were looking at a possible trap game Sunday vs. Las Vegas but rolled 34-19. This is the season. Win here and the Fins do have a path to a wild-card spot. Lose, and it’s over. Miami goes for the season sweep as it won 15-10 at New England in Week 5 when Tyler Huntley and Jacoby Brissett were the quarterbacks, and neither should see the field Sunday barring injury.
Pick ATS: Miami (alternate line of -6.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
New York comes out of its bye week still with Brian Daboll as the team’s head coach – and ownership has said it’s not planning to make a change during the season or after – but without Daniel Jones as the team’s starting quarterback. He was terrible in a 20-17 OT loss in Germany in Week 10 to Carolina, New York’s fourth straight defeat. Instead of Daboll going with second-stringer Drew Lock, third-stringer Tommy DeVito gets the call for this one. Tampa Bay is out of its bye week on a four-game losing streak but that was against really tough competition and with the team very banged up. The hope is future Hall of Fame WR Mike Evans can play this week for the first time since an injury in Week 7.
Pick ATS: Tampa Bay
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Who would have guessed that the Commanders would have been so much better than the Cowboys this season? Certainly not oddsmakers. It’s their first meeting of the season and thus Dallas’ first look at Washington rookie QB sensation Jayden Daniels. The Commanders dropped their second game in a row on Thursday in Week 11, 26-18 in Philadelphia to fall to second behind the Eagles in the division. Daniels didn’t have one of his better games with only 191 yards passing with a TD and pick and just 18 yards rushing. Dallas is on a short week and fell to 0-5 at home this season after another embarrassing loss on Monday night, 34-10 to Houston. Could Coach Mike McCarthy be fired this week?
Pick ATS: Washington (alternate line of -10)
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Maybe the best-run franchise in the NFL against its worst-run team. Kansas City had its franchise-record 15-game winning streak (including playoffs) snapped on Sunday in a 30-21 loss in Buffalo in a potential AFC title game preview. Kansas City still controls its destiny to be the AFC’s top seed but fell behind Detroit as the favourite to win the Super Bowl. Carolina is off its bye week and on its first two-game winning streak since early in the 2021 campaign. Former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young has shown some signs that he might still be a competent NFL QB in his past three overall since returning to the starting role when Andy Dalton got injured. Rookie second-round tailback Jonathon Brooks is expected to make his NFL debut on Sunday. Brooks tore his ACL last year while at the University of Texas and has been working his way back.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
It’s a short week for Houston after easily winning 34-10 in Dallas on Monday night behind three Joe Mixon rushing scores. In his first game back from injury since Week 5, wideout Nico Collins had four catches for 54 yards. The Titans are an NFL-worst 1-9 ATS following Sunday’s 23-13 home loss to Minnesota. Tennessee has now scored 20 points or fewer in six straight games and clearly needs to start over completely on offence. The Texans were 2-0 vs. the Titans last season, and they play again in Week 18.
Pick ATS: Houston
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
The Broncos snapped a two-game slide Sunday with a 38-6 home blowout of Atlanta as rookie QB Bo Nix had easily the best game of his young career and one of the best in the NFL this season in completing 28 of 33 for 307 yards and four scores. Nix is now the only rookie QB this century with 18 total touchdowns and two or fewer turnovers in a nine-game span. The Raiders are just going through the motions at this point as they came out of their bye and lost a sixth straight game, 34-19 in Miami. Denver eyes the sweep as it beat the visiting Raiders 34-18 in Week 5 behind two TD passes from Nix and a 100-yard INT return for a score from Patrick Surtain II.
Pick ATS: Denver
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Potential NFC playoff preview. San Francisco might not get there if it doesn’t stop blowing games late as it did Sunday in a 20-17 home upset loss to Seattle on a last-second TD run. The loss dropped the Niners to 1-3 in NFC West games and saw defensive end Nick Bosa suffer a hip and oblique injury that could cost him some time. The Packers should have lost in Chicago on Sunday but beat the Bears for the 11th straight time by blocking the potential winning 46-yard field goal as time expired. Green Bay had just one third-down conversion, its second win this season with one or fewer. The rest of the league has two such victories.
Pick ATS: Green Bay
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Arizona is certainly one of the league’s biggest surprises at 6-4, on a four-game winning streak and atop the NFC West out of its bye. QB Kyler Murray has just one pick during the winning streak and rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. has been everything the team hoped for as the No. 4 overall pick with 33 catches for 499 yards and six TDs. Seattle came out of its bye Sunday and stunned the Niners 20-17 on the road to snap a two-game skid. Geno Smith ran for the winning TD from 13 yards out with 12 seconds left. Lose that, and Seattle’s playoff hopes likely are gone. It’s the first meeting this season between NFC West rivals, and they will play again in Week 14.
Pick ATS: Seattle
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday night game and could be a first-round NFC playoff preview. The Eagles improved to 6-0 out of their Week 5 bye with a huge 26-18 win at Washington on Thursday in Week 11. In that six-game winning streak, Philly has the NFL’s No. 1 total defence and No. 2 scoring unit. The Eagles are 7-0 this season when Pro Bowl WR AJ Brown is in the lineup. The Rams were staring at a trap game Sunday at New England but pulled out a 28-22 win behind four TD passes from Matthew Stafford. It was his 17th career such game, tied for seventh in league history.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles (alternate line of +3.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers, Monday
Huge game in the AFC wild-card race as it’s not likely that either the Ravens or Chargers win their respective divisions. And it’s the Harbaugh Bowl between head coaches and brothers John of Baltimore and Jim of Los Angeles. The Ravens lost 18-16 at AFC North-leading Pittsburgh on Sunday on a failed two-point PAT try in the final minute. Baltimore had season worsts in points, total yards (329) and turnovers (three). Derrick Henry became just the fourth player since 2000 with at least one TD in his team’s first 11 games of a season. Los Angeles blew a huge second-half lead to the Bengals but pulled it out late on a 29-yard TD run from JK Dobbins. It was the first time this season the Chargers, who had played a pretty easy schedule, allowed more than 20 points. I expect that to happen again Monday.
Pick ATS: Baltimore (alternate line of -2.5)