NFL Week 1 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
We saw how much energy those raucous crowds gave college football teams over the weekend. Here’s quick look at all Week 1 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Bucs, Thursday
Per usual, the defending Super Bowl champions host the Kickoff Game (and the champs usually win this). Tom Brady has been in this very often previously, but it’s his first time with Tampa Bay. The Bucs somehow bring back all 22 offensive/defensive starters. That’s a first for a defending champion in decades. Dallas will be without one of the best offensive guards in the NFL in Zack Martin. He landed on the COVID list Sunday. Tampa is 4-10-1 ATS in its past 15 as a home favourite.
Pick ATS: Dallas
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
Head coaching debuts of two former offensive coordinators in Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni (from the Colts) and Atlanta’s Arthur Smith (from the Titans.) Also the NFL debuts of two potentially very exciting rookies in Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith, the 2020 Heisman winner, and Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts – the highest-drafted at his position in NFL history. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Both won their AFC divisions last year, and I expect the Bills to repeat in the AFC East but not the Steelers in the AFC North. Pittsburgh was 11-1 last year when it visited Buffalo and lost 26-15 as the team crumbled down the stretch and in the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger threw two TDs but also two picks in the loss, one returned for a score. This is expected to be Big Ben’s final NFL season opener. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 games.
Pick ATS: Buffalo
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback Joe Burrow and receiver Ja’Marr Chase were one of the most dynamic duos in NCAA history during the 2019 season at LSU as the Tigers won the national title and Burrow and Chase both won numerous national awards. They are reunited Sunday as Chase was the No. 5 overall pick this year. Burrow was having nice 2020 rookie season before suffering a season-ending knee injury in his 10th game. The Vikings have already lost top tight end Irv Smith to a season-ending injury.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati (alternate line +3.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions
The 49ers were defending NFC champions entering last season but imploded because they were devastated by injuries, including to QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He will open this year as the starter, but it’s only a matter of time before rookie first-rounder Trey Lance takes over. He could see action in a few plays in the opener. Detroit is undergoing a massive rebuild with a new QB (Jared Goff), coaching staff and front office. The Lions will be terrible but will play hard because head coach Dan Campbell is incredibly intense.
Pick ATS: Detroit
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
Both teams added future Hall of Famers in the off-season: Arizona signed former Texans defensive end and three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt, while Tennessee traded for Falcons receiver Julio Jones. Both these clubs have the potential to win their conference if everything breaks right. Arizona closed last year on a 2-7 ATS run.
Pick ATS: Tennessee (alternate line of -2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts had a rough training camp with new starting QB Carson Wentz and Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson both having foot surgery – but both should be good to go for Week 1 ahead of schedule. However, top wideout TY Hilton is out injured. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson made some noise early in the off-season about wanting out of Seattle but is back for at least one more year. If he keeps taking a beating, though, expect Wilson to force his way out next winter.
Pick ATS: Seattle
Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team
These franchises appear on the rise. The Chargers have one of the best young QBs in the NFL in Justin Herbert, the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year. They also have a new head coach in former Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. Washington, the defending NFC East champion, might have the NFL’s best defence this year. Veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick is the new starting QB.
Pick ATS: Washington
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
It’s the “Sam Darnold Bowl.” The Jets traded the former No. 3 overall pick and their starting QB to the Panthers this off-season for draft picks. Darnold takes over as Carolina’s starter, while rookie No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson takes over in New York, and he looked very good in the pre-season. The Jets took some major season-ending hits in training camp on defence, however, and top wideout Jameson Crowder is in question for Week 1 on the COVID list.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
How bad do oddsmakers expect the Texans to be? They are home underdogs to a Jags team that closed the 2020 season on a franchise-record 15-game losing streak. Jacksonville did have a terrific off-season, though, in drafting Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall and luring Coach Urban Meyer out of retirement. Alas, rookie first-round running back Travis Etienne has been lost for the season.
Pick ATS: Houston (alternate line of +3.5)
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
The marquee matchup of Week 1 and a playoff rematch as the Chiefs escaped the visiting Browns in last year’s divisional round even though star QB Patrick Mahomes was knocked out injured. These clubs meeting in this season’s AFC title game would not surprise me in the least. Cleveland has just a single Week 1 victory since returning to the NFL.
Pick ATS: Kansas City
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
It’s a matchup of former stellar Alabama quarterbacks in this one in Miami’s second-year Tua Tagovailoa and New England rookie Mac Jones, who somewhat surprisingly won the job over Cam Newton – who was released in an even bigger shock. New England will be without top cornerback and former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. Dolphins starting left tackle Austin Jackson is iffy on the COVID list.
Pick ATS: New England
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
With New Orleans still recovering from Hurricane Ida, the Saints will “host” the Packers in Jacksonville, Fla. It’s also the start of the post-Drew Brees era for them as Jameis Winston takes over under centre. All-Pro wideout Michael Thomas will miss this game (and a handful more) for New Orleans as will Green Bay All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings.
Pick ATS: New Orleans
Denver Broncos at New York Giants
It’s the Broncos debut of new starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Top tight end Noah Fant is dealing with a leg injury but likely to play. The Giants should have running back and former NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Saquon Barkley off the torn ACL that ended his 2020 season very early, but top tight end Evan Engram is likely out.
Pick ATS: Denver
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
New starting quarterbacks on both sides for the Sunday night opener at the site of Super Bowl 56: Andy Dalton for the Bears, although he’s simply holding the spot for rookie Justin Fields, and trade acquisition Matthew Stafford for the Rams. These teams have played low-scoring slugfests each of the past three seasons, with L.A. winning the previous two.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles (alternate line of -7)
Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders, Monday
Should be a fun atmosphere at Allegiant Stadium as it’s the first Raiders game that counts with a full house in Las Vegas. The Ravens have been hit hard by injuries in camp, losing running back JK Dobbins for the season and rookie first-round receiver Rashod Bateman for at least three games. It’s potentially a make-or-break season for Raiders coach Jon Gruden and QB Derek Carr.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas